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Biotech / Medical : AMLN (DIABETES DRUGS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Gambler who wrote (1195)	3/3/1998 6:54:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2173

My comments are based on the published Phase III results coupled with advances by others in the oral treatment area. I think that there has been much progress for Type II and it will become increasingly difficult to capture market share as more oral agents come to market. AMLN has not shown the Pramlintide is approval for Type II after they did, they would have to prove that it is useful to patients who already have several drugs from which to chose, and by the time Pramlintide is approved, patients will have more choices. Yesterday, CNBC indicated that Rezulin sales were doing well, even after the liver enzyme scare. Several 2nd generation compounds are in trials and new approaches (rexinoids) are being developed. LLY just did a $200 million deal with LGND, which included several research programs, but the primary focus was Type II diabetes. I expect a similar deal to be signed by AGN, and a deal between JNJ and AGN would not surprise me. The opportunity for Type I is there, but the market is smaller, and Pramlintide results were approvable, but not overwhelming. JNJ has seen the data and already had invested over $100 million. However, they elected to move on. I do not think that they are abandoning diabetes, but they have seen more data of others than we have, and they are cutting their losses. I wasn't impressed with the ERGO data, but JNJ just did a deal with them. I don't think that AMLN has a long list of companies that are anxious to fill JNJ's shoes, which is one of the reasons that AMLN is accelerating filing and cutting staff. They need to prove the critics wrong, and I'm not sure that it will be easy. Until something significant happens, I expect the price to drift south (after today).

To: The Gambler who wrote (1195)	3/3/1998 7:59:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 2173

This morning's WSJ makes many of the same points that I posted earlier: The Wall Street Journal -- March 3, 1998 Technology & Health: Amylin Is Losing Support From J&J For Diabetes Drug ---- By Rhonda L. Rundle Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. said its partner, Johnson & Johnson, decided to terminate their collaboration to commercialize pramlintide, a diabetes drug that is Amylin's leading product candidate. The decision is a major blow for Amylin, which over the past three years has received more than $160 million from the pharmaceutical giant to develop pramlintide. J&J's support had been widely viewed by investors as validation of the drug's potential. Its withdrawal underscores the risks small biotechnology companies face in trying to bring new medicines to market. Amylin said it plans to restructure its operations, including a 25% work-force reduction, in order to ensure that it has sufficient cash resources to operate its research and development programs for at least one year without additional funding. Amylin has about 260 employees, mostly at its San Diego headquarters. "We believe very strongly that we have a drug and that J&J's decision is merely a portfolio decision" to invest resources elsewhere, said Richard Haugen, chief executive officer. J&J's decision won't interrupt the clinical-development program for pramlintide, which is continuing in nearly 2,500 diabetes patients in the U.S. and Europe. "None of the trials is being cut," Mr. Haugen said. In Raritan, N.J., a J&J spokesman said: "We re-evaluated the cost and resource implications of the collaboration and concluded that it was no longer in our interests to continue." Amylin said it was surprised by J&J's decision, which comes six months after the biotechnology company unveiled lackluster test results for pramlintide. Analysts said then that the findings weren't sufficient to gain Food and Drug Administration approval to commercialize the drug. Amylin has countered that the findings offered "proof of principle" that the drug works to improve glucose control in people with diabetes who need insulin therapy. Such control is a key to reducing the risk of diabetic complications, which include blindness, kidney failure, and amputations. Amylin was founded more than 10 years ago to develop drugs based on the hormone amylin, which plays a role in the regulation of glucose metabolism. The company went public at $14 a share in 1992, and the shares quickly shot up to $24.50. But the company so far hasn't been able to fulfill that early promise. Yesterday, its shares closed at $5.0625, down 6.25 cents, in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The J&J news was issued after the close of trading. "This is a tough blow and quite meaningful because we know that J&J has not left a single stone unturned in its efforts to be very active in the diabetes area," said Viren Mehta, an analyst at Mehta Partners in New York. "We expect Amylin to try to find another partner as soon as possible, but we're not optimistic," said Albert Rauch, an analyst at Everen Securities in Chicago. J&J's support is shifting to Boston-based Ergo Science Corp., which is developing an oral diabetes drug, he said. Those companies unveiled a development and marketing agreement last week. Amylin said it had about $53 million in cash at the end of December and expects to receive another $15 million to $16 million from J&J before the partnership ends in August. Those funds, plus interest, together with the planned corporate reductions, will enable Amylin to continue most of its drug-development efforts for another 12 months, Mr. Haugen said. By then, he said, Amylin hopes to be in a position to raise additional money.

To: The Gambler who wrote (1195)	3/3/1998 8:05:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 2173

CNBC just mentioned AMLN. They said that the work force was being cut by 25% and JNJ was withdrawing support in 6 months, but AMLN was going ahead with the filing. The also mentioned the price drop last August and said AMLN lost 1/4 yesterday to close just above $5.

To: The Gambler who wrote (1195)	3/3/1998 8:10:00 AM
From: tonyt	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2173

Well, if nothing else, this shows that it is not a good idea to put all your $$ in one stock. Its also a very bad idea to get so emotionally attached to any stock that you put eveything you have, including all your free time, into promoting it. I hope that we're all rational investors/traders here who were smart enough not to put everything in one company.

To: The Gambler who wrote (1195)	3/3/1998 8:27:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2173

Biotechs with one major product and one major partner are inherently risky. Some investors have trouble distinguishing between single product companies and those that have a broad based enabling technology or technologies. The number of partners is also a good indicator, because the partners usually have access to confidential information before they do a deal. I have recommended AMLN in the past, but certainly not since the August data. Of course some Biotechs look like a slam dunk and are worthy of a more concentrated weighting.