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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don S.Boller who wrote (14575)	3/3/1998 7:39:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Well, I actually began by considering whether (whatever other factors are at work) there might be any psychological parallels --or similar rhythms-- between 1929 and today. Because there is no question that human psychology is important in speculative bubbles, and the same patterns have recurred from the South Sea bubble to various land speculations to speculative periods in the stock markets of the world. Of course, as you say, the economic forces at work are vastly different from 1929. I have been trying to guess is there are any comparable factors (i.e. the condition of factory workers in SE Asia and the farmers in the U.S. in the 1920s). One parallel that holds true for the South Sea Bubble, 1929, and today is that a period of international tension and even open war has been followed by a great relaxation of such tension and a reduction of military expenditures. These are eras of "good feeling." They culminate in a phase where a lot of people imagine themselves a lot richer than they really are, and then there's a big bust.