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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Metzer who wrote (15364)	3/4/1998 9:06:00 AM
From: Starbase4.0	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25960

Evidence for a short (as requested): Fact 1: Cymer is valued at over 50 times estimated 1998 earnings. Fact 2: Industry is expecting ZERO growth this year (based on AMAT, other semi-equip, and industry reports). Fact 3: Cymer has said their earnings will decline next quarter. Fact 4: Asian crisis is causing order cancellations and revisions of earning estimates downward for the semi-equipment companies. Fact 5: Many analysts feel the sector is overvalued, due for a fall in 1998. Fact 6: Cymer's technology is not needed in 1998-1999; use of masking will allow Intel and others to produce chips just fine with the existing technology. Fact 7: Much of the hype in Cymer is based on Moore's Law (thanks Steve Forbes) as dogma. But Moore's Law is flawed because it ignores the supply/demand factor and assumes smaller-carved chip demand will always be growing. Fact 7: Many companies are already questioning the "need for more speed" ( processors over 200 Mhz). Many are sticking with their "old" PCs/servers. Fact 8: There may be a recession this/next year. This would hurt small companies like Cymer. Fact 9: Whenever this thread gets extremely bullish, it's time to sell. Witness the euphoria when the stock was at $50. Face it, you folks are a contrary indicator extrordinare. Thanks for helping me know when to go short. - - - - - Will sleep well tonight in Irvine!