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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (2508)	3/4/1998 12:15:00 PM
From: peter michaelson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Tommaso: You're nuts!! Guaranteed revolution! As long as the money people are behind it. Hey, call it a revolution just like I may be a $100,000,000 winner in this week's sweepstakes. Great spin. Written in good humor and friendliness - just feeling rambunctious this morning. peter

To: Tommaso who wrote (2508)	3/4/1998 12:50:00 PM
From: Chuck Bleakney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Yes we Americans do get some relief every 4 years, but I wouldn't exactly call it a revolution. We get new faces, but the machinery is changed very slowly if at all. Most of the changes are superficial. Our congress is barely manageable, just by its sheer size... Our President's are getting more and more off the wall with every election, and the Senate is as old as the hills. This form was for the most part developed by Jefferson and crew for a nation of significantly smaller size based upon the government he knew (monarchy/house of commons) blended with the ones he had reverence for (Roman, Greek). It has served well but it still requires "maintainence", and it hasn't had enough lately. It is yet young as enduring governments go, will it truly pass the test of time??? It's not likely that any of us today will be around long enough to find out. (unless it fails during our lifespan.) I'm more inclined to call it an evolution rather than a revolution... The problem is, are we evolving fast enough to not become extinct? Chuck

To: Tommaso who wrote (2508)	3/4/1998 6:57:00 PM
From: Michael Collings	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Since I'm new to this thread, I just wanted to give my opinion on the Japanese situation..... For years the yen has been held to artificially low levels to enhance their economy. They have been able to do this by not converting US dollars (from years of trade surpluses) back to yen. Instead they just financed our debt by buying treasuries. Had they converted, the value of the yen would have gone up as the surplus nation and our dollar would have gone down. Their low interest rates had the same effect in keeping their currency low. On the positive side this ensured markets for their products and certainly we benefited from their financing our debt. Now through years of bad investments and a liquidity crisis, they are slowly bringing the money home to shore up their balance sheets. I suspect that has more to do with the increase in money supply than the Fed concern with a market correction. Obviously the Japanese do not want the yen to increase significantly through this process as they still want to unload all their products on us. So far throughout the Asian crisis the US treasury market has been considered a safe haven and subsequently the Japanese liquidations have not significantly hurt our bond markets. The recent rise in rates of the last few weeks is something noteworthy though. A rise in our rates occurring with a drop in the dollar against the yen is a possible catalyst for a market correction here in the US. I do think this process is being carefully implemented as to not cause a rash market reaction, however, the future trade deficit numbers may overshadow that caution.