To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1121 ) 3/4/1998 11:17:00 PM From: Steve Fancy Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 22640
Brazil's high jobless rate seen prompting rate cut Reuters, Wednesday, March 04, 1998 at 22:04 SAO PAULO, March 4 (Reuters) - Brazil's steeper-than-expected interest rate cut on Wednesday was motivated in large part by the country's worrying jobless rate, which soared to a 13-year high in January, economists said. The central bank cut Brazil's prime lending rate to an annualized 28 percent from 34.5 percent Wednesday. The new rate is effective from March 5 to April 15. Before the release of unemployment data Wednesday, economists had forecast a cut to between 30 percent and 31 percent. "Without doubt, the high unemployment figure had a lot to do with the decision to make an aggressive cut," said Dany Rappaport, chief economist at Santander in Brazil. "This surprised me," Rapport said, noting he had forecast a reduction to 31 percent. Earlier Wednesday, the government's National Statistics Institute (IBGE) said unemployment rose to 7.25 percent in January from 4.84 percent in December, fueling fears the economy was heading into recession. Economists had expected the jobless rate to grow in the first quarter because of a tough fiscal package and a near-doubling of interest rates late last year to protect the local currency against speculators. But the sharp rise was beyond all forecasts. Also supporting the large cut was a record inflow of dollars in February and prospects of steady dollar flows throughout the year, thanks to an extensive privatization program, economists said. Dollar flows increase confidence in the government's foreign exchange regime because they boost hard currency reserves, which are used to protect the local currency. "The unemployment figure today, record dollar inflows and a lower-than-expected trade balance in February were all associated with this cut," said Odair Abate, chief economist at Lloyds Bank in Brazil. E-mail: john.miller@reuters.com Copyright 1998, Reuters News Ser