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Technology Stocks : Atmel - the trend is about to change -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Lou who wrote (7969)	3/4/1998 6:45:00 PM
From: Frank Chen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13565

Jim, To call for a target price for a cyclical stock is impossible, but I can give you a few examples on how a cyclical stock, if caught right, can earn you the best return. I bought USAir at 12, probably 2 years after the crash, thinking it'll turn a profit. Unfortunately, I cashed out when it was 15. Now the stock is above 70 the last time I checked. I missed the boat of airline boom. I bought BBY last year (can't remember whether the date is right) at 8, because I thought electronics retailers are going to have a turn-around year in 1997 and 1998. I watched it to go up before the GSCO upgrade came out, cashed out at 14. Nicer profit than USAir, you would think. How much is BBY now? More than $65! Cyclical stocks, in the bust cycle, they can lose money, so the stock will usually trade close to book value; when they earn money in the boom cycle, the PE can go as high as you can imaging, because the PE usually runs before the peak of the cycle. So, my answer to your question about target price is: I don't know. I'll buy in at a low price, hopefully between 10-15. I'll hold it for at least 18 months. In my opinion, the next cycle will be very strong, because the supply is cut really short in this current down cycle, and when the price of flash firms up in face of increased demand, it'll still take 1 year for other flash makers to buildup the fab, ramp up, and push the product to the market. I think the next cycle will not only be strong, it'll also be very long. If you really want to hear it, I think it'll go to 50 at least. They do have a potential to earn $3/sh in the next cycle. Frank

To: Jim Lou who wrote (7969)	3/5/1998 12:59:00 AM
From: Mang Cheng	Respond to of 13565

Boy, atml has been really disappointing these few days. Hopfully it's 'purely' due to discounting for this Intel warning. Insiders knew about this warning coming for a while already due to heavy intel's insider sellings - so most semi stocks showed weakness long before today. If no Atml's company specific problems coming in the next little while, we should see it back to $16 shortly. Afterhour of $15 is bad, it seems to be breaking down again ! Post about Intel's insider sellings : Message 3603607 Mang