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Strategies & Market Trends : Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (1281)	3/4/1998 11:40:00 PM
From: kolo55	Respond to of 2542

Of the big ECMs, SCI should be affected the most. But remember Intel's problems appear to be with ASP and margins, and with an inventory shift from OEMs to Intel (as OEMs order JIT). Personally I believe that drops in ASP will help spur unit growth, and as I have argued on this thread time and again, ECM companies earnings growth depends more on unit growth. The assembly content of a product keeps dropping somewhat, but not as fast as component pricing, and unit growth more than offsets. SCI is heavily dependent on the PC sector, so if the market punishes anyone with PC exposure, they could get hit. SCI just got hit today on an analyst downgrade, so could get interesting for a play. FLEXF has almost no PC exposure, but the market punishes a lot of bystanders as well, and I notice the foreign markets are down tonight. Jabil and Solectron have moderate amounts of exposure to the PC sector. In hindsight, last week was good week to short some tech stocks. Paul

To: jeffbas who wrote (1281)	3/5/1998 6:29:00 AM
From: Creditman	Respond to of 2542

If cheaper chips mean cheaper computers ... like $700 complete systems, then there will be more PCBs sold! There is a good chance that this is all just about Intel getting real competition after all this time.

To: jeffbas who wrote (1281)	3/5/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: kolo55	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2542

Well, the booby prize goes to Jabil. The mo guys sure have been back at again in Jabil these last 10 days. The stock is now down about 13 points since its intermediate high last Thursday and Friday. And earnings are coming. This looks like too much fun to miss out on, so I picked up some Jabil today in the 43-44 range. I hold to see the earnings at least, and maybe just hold on after. Flextronics held up well, and SCI and SLR got hit about 5%. Interesting that SCI held as strong as it did. Maybe the market players have more brains than I give them credit for. Nah, just look at Jabil price chart recently. Paul