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Technology Stocks : Altaba Inc. (formerly Yahoo) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bill Harmond who wrote (7889)3/6/1998 12:43:00 AM
From: Howard Hoffman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
 
I live in Silicon Valley, not far from YHOO. When is the Shareholders meeting? I would like to attend



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (7889)3/6/1998 1:12:00 AM
From: Michael Collings  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
 
I do believe there has been large amounts of stock already sold by institutions. The very frequent numbers of large blocks trading at the bid is indicative of big players unloading stock. The heavy volume last Friday, Monday and today are also indicative. However, I also agree that there may still be more out there looking for a home. So I won't say it's over yet.

But I do believe it will be soon. I am sure that the analysts and managers love this story but even they have a limit on how far they will carry this. Because right now Yahoo is just a story and we have all seen many stories before. I doubt that many will risk their reputations on a possibility that may or may not work out. Sure there is potential, but at some point you have to realize that 4 or 5 years of that potential is already factored into the stock price.

And one other point, Money managers have shareholders to answer to. No one cares about the story when they just lost a lot of money. Also money managers are generally pretty aggressive traders, not the buy and hold indefinitely type. They are bonused on their performance and are looking for stocks that will be able to sustain that performance (bonused= taking the noun "bonus" and making it into an illegal verb). A stock who's price has already discounted 4 or 5 years of "possible" future earnings isn't likely to double in price anytime soon (unless they can successfully squeeze shorts consistently). But remember they need to be able to get rid of their shares also so there comes a point that continued squeezing defeats the mission. They're not about to ride it down.

With this stock, you also have the float increasing significantly, so it becomes harder to continue to enact these squeezes. The trigger point on this recent squeeze came on the same day that the short interest was published showing that it had dropped by a half a million shares. That was followed with the heaviest volume day ever. Think the big guys were just sitting on the sidelines watching? I don't. I think they were dumping shares on the shorts who were scrambling to cover.

And remember the shorts have learned a pretty hard lesson with this stock and that is don't let this stock get too far away from you. So they are quick to jump in to cover. You have to have a ton of volume to get all these institutions out with a profit. They outnumber the shorts two to one, and they also compete with each other. Throw in insider selling and further shorting and that means a ton of buyers are needed.

I have to believe that the MM's are very busy locking in their profits right now. And that's why I think it will be sooner than later.



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (7889)3/6/1998 3:39:00 AM
From: Michael Collings  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
 
William,you really do make some very good points. But there is one problem, it isn't proven that YHOO is worth 4 billion or will be. It isn't proven that YHOO will remain the leader, and it isn't proven that they can earn significant money on their business model.

As with so many industries, todays winner does not mean next year's winner. I do not doubt the importance of the internet, I just doubt the claims of Yahoo's permanent dominance over it. Microsoft was not the first software company, but microsoft became the industry standard. Way back when, I remember Novell being the hot software stock. Microsoft was pretty young and just another software company.

In this model, there is so much competition from so many areas, I find it hard to believe that anyone can proclaim permanent dominance. I am sure that the annual meetings of all the internet companies are just singing the praises of the potential. You couldn't possibly imagine them doing anything else. I am sure YHOO is very good at it.

And I am also sure all the institutions want the public to believe the miraculous potential of this company because they will need to believe it to pay these kinds of prices so early in the game.

There are no disappointments factored into this price and that alone should be a cause for concern. A company this young could easily make a few mistakes here and there especially in this kind of competitive race. Right now they don't have deep enough pockets to weather much of a storm and there are competitors that do.

They may be able to continue to dilute their stock to keep a competitive edge for awhile but only if they don't disappoint. That may be an unfair demand upon a young company like this, but at this stock price, investors will demand no less.

This run has been wonderful for the longs to date, but there comes a time to take some cards off the table. I have never enjoyed seeing the public take a bath on any stock, but almost every time they do. And that is because the stories are always so convincing. I don't know how many times I've heard about the wonderful prospects of and growth potential on overvalued stocks just before they collapse on some announcement. And almost every time you can look back on the volume in the weeks proceeding the announcement and you will see some record volume. But the real record volume hits when the stock is collapsing.