To: Bill Harmond who wrote (7889 ) 3/6/1998 3:39:00 AM From: Michael Collings Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
William,you really do make some very good points. But there is one problem, it isn't proven that YHOO is worth 4 billion or will be. It isn't proven that YHOO will remain the leader, and it isn't proven that they can earn significant money on their business model. As with so many industries, todays winner does not mean next year's winner. I do not doubt the importance of the internet, I just doubt the claims of Yahoo's permanent dominance over it. Microsoft was not the first software company, but microsoft became the industry standard. Way back when, I remember Novell being the hot software stock. Microsoft was pretty young and just another software company. In this model, there is so much competition from so many areas, I find it hard to believe that anyone can proclaim permanent dominance. I am sure that the annual meetings of all the internet companies are just singing the praises of the potential. You couldn't possibly imagine them doing anything else. I am sure YHOO is very good at it. And I am also sure all the institutions want the public to believe the miraculous potential of this company because they will need to believe it to pay these kinds of prices so early in the game. There are no disappointments factored into this price and that alone should be a cause for concern. A company this young could easily make a few mistakes here and there especially in this kind of competitive race. Right now they don't have deep enough pockets to weather much of a storm and there are competitors that do. They may be able to continue to dilute their stock to keep a competitive edge for awhile but only if they don't disappoint. That may be an unfair demand upon a young company like this, but at this stock price, investors will demand no less. This run has been wonderful for the longs to date, but there comes a time to take some cards off the table. I have never enjoyed seeing the public take a bath on any stock, but almost every time they do. And that is because the stories are always so convincing. I don't know how many times I've heard about the wonderful prospects of and growth potential on overvalued stocks just before they collapse on some announcement. And almost every time you can look back on the volume in the weeks proceeding the announcement and you will see some record volume. But the real record volume hits when the stock is collapsing.