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To: craig crawford who wrote (7895)3/6/1998 9:32:00 AM
From: Oeconomicus  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
 
When it becomes obvious that YHOO is going to rule the internet and do billions of dollars in commerce and ad revenues, you will have to pay $40 billion!

you can wait until it's obvious that YHOO is entrenched, but it will cost you a lot more than $3 billion when that happens.

Just maybe YHOO will never disappoint.


So, you are saying that we should pay now what might be a reasonable value 5+ years out, assuming that they will never disappoint, because by the time the company is really worth $4 billion you'll have to pay $40 billion to buy it?

Let's see if I understand - It is seriously overvalued now because it will always be seriously overvalued and if you want to have a ten bagger in five years, discount the arbitrary $40 billion five years out back to today at around 58% per annum and get a value of $4 billion.

Craig, what's the drug of choice today?

Am I missing the Vision Thing or is it really a Hallucination Thing?



To: craig crawford who wrote (7895)3/6/1998 1:19:00 PM
From: LoLoLoLita  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 27307
 
craig,

Your comparison of YHOO to CSCO and MSFT doesn't make sense.

Read up in any economics text on what they call "barriers
to entry." CSCO and MSFT developed technologies that were
protected by patents and copyrights. YHOO has no such
protections. Anyone with $100 M or so can enter this market.

Here is an, admittedly, very extreme scenario.

Bill Gates (if he didn't have the FTC and DOJ on his back)
could decide tomorrow that MSFT should sink up to $ 10 B
into Microsoft Network. And that it would offer free 56 K
dial-up access to the full internet for the first year to
Charter Members, and after that $1/month for life. And it
would offer FREE real-time stock quotes (at least 100/month
for the NAZ--don't know if they could get the NYSE to do it),
and free access to MSNBC programming and Dow Jones News Service.

What would that do to YHOO? AOL too.

David