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To: John Carson who wrote (49975)	3/6/1998 8:29:00 PM
From: Zoran	Respond to of 186894

John, I couldn't have agreed better with what you said. CPQ is not only big but also rich (its p/b ratio is about 4, while DELL's is over 40). In the price war that's forthcoming DELL will bleed to death. Unfortunately, semis will be casualties also. What a bleak future! Zoran

To: John Carson who wrote (49975)	3/7/1998 1:32:00 AM
From: Thomas M.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

That analogy is outstanding. Bill Fleckenstein has gotten laughed off this thread for correctly identifying the PC industry fundamentals that you mention and making a killing in the stock market. Let me add that before CPQ's warning came MUEI, GTW, HWP, IBM, every Japanese competitor . . . Tom

To: John Carson who wrote (49975)	3/7/1998 10:11:00 AM
From: Sabrejet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

You said "Dell will bleed to death", could you explain how? Is it strictly the demand end of the market or do people actually believe that by CPQ cutting prices this will instantly vaporize DELL and it's business? Your argument in post #49976 is logically incorrect because first, by using the assumption "computers are a commodity" you invariably state "All products made and sold are commodities" You assume that Moore's law is a falsehood. That cars are commodities. That all major appliances are commodities and that when a new model arises for a higher price, no one will buy it. You assume that DELL's margins will collapse, after all, earnings are what drive share price (all factors included). Let me get this straight, component prices drop, DELL's margins drop??? I don't have to explain this to prove that is not the case do I? The so called "channel" or "inventories" : Is that going to hurt DELL inhouse? What "channel"? What "inventory"? QNTM, SEG vs. DELL: They're not the same animal. Yes, you can compare CPQ wih QNTM etc... but the comparison with DELL etc... is invalid. Now, You and I don't want to lose money! We both understand that. Market psychology may play havoc with these issues but DELL is not to be confused with the others. seczebra