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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Krishna who wrote (20179)	3/6/1998 11:58:00 PM
From: Night Writer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

Dave, You may be correct. Like I said in an earlier post. After Hurricane Andrew, insurance stocks jumped. Not a logical more after a multi billion dollar catastrophe. On Compaq: People might say - Now we know the story, and it is not so bad, then buy cpq. People might also say - Stuffing the channel, shame on you - Sell cpq. Who knows? We will find out Monday. If it goes down, I'm buying and turning my fine broker's hair a little grayer. NW

To: Dave Krishna who wrote (20179)	3/7/1998 12:01:00 AM
From: J. David	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

I agree that CPQ is oversold but there's still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the company. First of all, CPQ has yet to present their plans for integrating DEC. Also, following the COMS case, the government will look at CPQ's DEC acquisition writeoff very carefully possibly limiting the amount that CPQ could otherwise charge. Lastly, as you mentioned, CPQ stated that they are cautious on Q2 as well. Perhaps this sets up the company to surprise on the upside but I have to believe that CPQ is dead money for the next few months...not likely to have anything more than some short term trading opportunities. I suspect that by the second half of '98 the Asian economies, to some degree, will be on the rebound while the DEC acquisition benefits will have become more evident and the inventory problems corrected. I'm long CPQ but see no point in kidding myself. That always costs money. Best of luck.

To: Dave Krishna who wrote (20179)	3/7/1998 12:11:00 AM
From: Carl Wysocki	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Dave, I'll add my $0.02 to yours, and while we can't even get a cup of coffee with that, we may be able to buy a 166 Mhz, 16 Meg, 2Gb computer with it next week (monitor extra). Given 20/20 hindsight, I feel pretty dumb. If Intel is going to have a bad quarter, it kinda follows that some of their major customers are in deep doo doo as well. I'm not sure I believe Dell's protests to the contrary, since in a non value add environment price is everything. I think I've heard the same refrain from QNTM/SEG/WDC and again from SYBS/IFMX. Let's just hope the bad news stays confined to the PC sector, because then you are correct. But, should, say, CSCO give warning, I'd be plenty concerned (we don't have to worry about MSFT, since, IMO, they can cease operations for a quarter and deliver profits from their deferred revenue slush fund). Who knows, maybe this is the beginning of the Y2k impact, in which companies are redeploying their IT budgets to the bug fix at the expense of hardware purchases. If so, it just makes the holding period longer, but the rewards no less sweet. Carl

To: Dave Krishna who wrote (20179)	3/7/1998 1:19:00 AM
From: Larry J.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

Dave, well said. Look at CS after they warned earlier in the week. The stock had closed @ 13 1/4. The thread was talking eleven or single digits. However, the warning had been widely expected much the same as with CPQ. The stock opened higher and closed @ $14 and change. There is definitely something to be said for the removal of the speculation and doubt regarding the quarter. It's unfortunate that CPQ chose a Friday to warn, as the initial reaction on Monday may be amplified. Regardless, if AOL can trade at $120 per share, and YHOO at $80, then CPQ @ $27 is a no brainer. I'm only disappointed because I added the full # of shares I wanted on Thur., instead of 50%. Look at a chart of ASND from Nov. ($22 - $35). CPQ @ $25 is as good, probably even better! Larry