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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Windseye who wrote (20223)	3/7/1998 2:51:00 AM
From: WeisbrichA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

W, Most business owners, presidents, CIO,....., as you well know, have to make strategic and operational decisions based on incomplete or imperfect information. And, as we both also know, there is a fine line between gambling and informed decision making. Entrepreneurs, I think, handle risk differently than hired managers for large corporations. I think the likes of CPQ staff act more like the former; they are taking bigger risks. I believe EP and board were well acquainted with the projections of the CPQ pricing models for the crowded commodity PC home/commercial desktop market. I believe also, that DEC was a very reluctant bride until they did some of their own modeling and projections. Yes, I think DEC was in denial. Couldn't see the wall, let alone read the writing. Remember, the DEC negotiations were first started almost two years ago. Perhaps they should not have purchased Tandem, but that is what they had to settle for because DEC was intransigent. Then fickle DEC had a change of heart in late 97. As you stated, EP had to know a historically low quarter was approaching. Here it is, late fourth quarter with 30 seconds on the clock fourth down and 3 yards to goal.... lose with three win with 6. EP and crew were going for 6 methinks. EP gambling with my money? What are the potential risks? What are the potential rewards? Big risks equate to big gains or loses (ask any option trader). EP's track record on managing risk to date would be deemed by most as pretty damn good. Risk is why this CPQ is a volatile stock. One could always buy a less risky (volatile) stock like AT&T or MMM. When one (even EP) gets greedy, the risk threshold can become overly flexible and warped. Pushing the envelope might be irrational behavior for a manager of a public corporation. If it works, he "was bold and self assured". If not, he "was inept" I think that I am preaching to the choir here. I think you have BTDT on many occasions. Cheers RW