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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ToySoldier who wrote (20814)	3/7/1998 11:28:00 AM
From: Spartex	Respond to of 42771

ToySoldier: Again, I applaud your efforts. You have a very astute understanding of the playing field between Novell and its competitors. I just wish you fortune if you are able to decide to invest in NOVL at a reasonable entry point. Sub-9 would be attractive. I really agree with you share number projections, although the October numbers look too optimistic to me, but the way they push valuations in others such as AOL and YHOO, I wouldn't bet against you ;). Its interesting to see that now INTC, MOT, and CPQ are now feeling the effects of price cutting and overproduction, and a bit of Asian flu. Hmmmm, everyone was so proud in slamming NOVL for its stuffing of the channel in the past, well CPQ has to work through the same problems this coming 2 quarters, as well as their acquisition of DEC. That is why I was interested in investing in NOVL last DEC-JAN, they were seriously correcting this problem, and while it resulted in reduced revenues, the correction was welcomed by serious investors who understand what steps need to be put into place for a turnaround to become successful. One step at a time, but I believe NOVL's first steps look very encouraging. I'd rather buy them in the 9 range than many, many other techs that are experiencing slowdowns and overcompetition in their respective markets. I think NOVL will get through the next 1-2 quarters in fine shape. ToySoldier, my hats off to you for bringing in a very articulate and concise overview of NOVL's business plans, products, and future. Regards, Quad-K

To: ToySoldier who wrote (20814)	3/7/1998 2:59:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Respond to of 42771

Back to Novell and the timetable you outlined Your points: -1- Novell will go up if MSFT goes down. We didn't see that in December and why should we see any of that type of reaction? NT revenue is estimated at 6.5 billion next year and Novell's is 1 billion. Novell no longer owns the server market. Its no longer one wins and the other loses. NT is in the lower segment and Novell is just holding on to its existing enterprise segment. You will only see this reaction if (a) Novell's web server sales climb dramatically (b) people chuck their low end servers for Novell's. I like to dream too. -2- Novell will have from Q3-Q4 to Q1 next year to pull people off the fence. Netware 5.0 comes out in June/July. Its success will be known in the quarter ending OCtober which will be reported at the end of November. By November MSFT will begin the FUD and hype its NT5.0. How far into 99 do you expect NT5 to be delayed? Do you think MSFT will just let Novell have 3 Quarters to establish its product without a response?

To: ToySoldier who wrote (20814)	3/7/1998 3:26:00 PM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Hi ToySoldier, FWIW (for what it's worth), after reading a number of your posts, I believe you are reasonably familiar with Novell and it's products. IMO, anyone that has paid to be allowed to post on the threads should be welcome to do so. I can appreciate the reasons why a person might wish to remain anonymous, although I probably place more weight on the opinions of those that place their money and name behind their comments, or at least have held a position in the past. At the same time there are plenty of reasons why a person would delay a position until a better entry point and follow along until they reached that point. Everyone sharing whatever information and opinions they have is what this is all about. Expect to get flamed now and then and don't take it personal. A few comments on stock price and your projections: NOVL hasn't traded below 6 in years. The low last year was $6.28. There are small gaps in the chart left at the open clear down into the 7s. I don't know if the gap theory explains why NOVL does what it does but it always seems to retrace even the small gaps eventually. There are different theories on how to determine a support level. I use what I consider to be the most basic and that's the last low in whatever time frame I'm looking at. Over the last month or so there's minor support in the low 8s and very solid support in the high 6s. The length of time it takes a pattern to form makes it stronger. Support in the high 6s would be part of a pattern in a 1 year chart. As someone else pointed out TA really only tells you what has already happened but it does give some clues on future projections. Breaking out of a double bottom like we saw on this run is a very strong pattern. You can draw lines across the tops and bottoms in a chart to get trend lines. Spikes above or below those lines would suggest a reversal of the trend. NOVL came real close to a reversal on this pass. If it weren't for the law suit, I think it would have made it. I tend to think of the news items that have a strong effect on the chart as significant events. That news of the suit prevented a full blown break out and a solid reversal suggests that the implications are huge. The very long term down trend established over the last 3 years would still be in effect and would call for new lows in coming months. That makes potential effects of the suit important considerations. As others have mentioned the probability of a huge pay out to share holders is the least likely out come and wouldn't happen for years in any case. IMO, a federal audit by the SEC is a near certainty. The class action would almost require it to substantiate their claims. That leaves two possible results; either the books are clean as a whistle or they will have to restate earnings going back an indefinite period of time. "IF" they have to restate earnings and "IF" the numbers are bad the impact on the stock price would be enormous. It would hurt investor confidence as well as customer confidence at a time when everyone is watching to see if they can dig their way out of a lot of problems. The chart would almost requires a least a retest and consolidation at the last level of support in the low 8s. It will be a fight at that level between the suit and possible revenue from new products. The down side risk of the suit will probably out weigh the potential of a turn around. My guess is that support will break and the price will go flat in the low 7s high 6s. From there you would be looking at a very long triple bottom. Those tend to be weak patterns but a break out in either direction would tell the tale. There would be resistance levels established along the way that should give some clues to possible break outs to the upside. "IF" it forms a triple bottom "AND" breaks upward, the price of the stock could go ballistic. "IF" it forms a triple bottom "AND" breaks downward, NOVL is toast. Paul wanted some TA discussion so that's my 2 cents worth. Discussing TA can be rowdy but fun. I've found it rare to see 100% agreement on the topic. Short term stochastics are crossing down in an extremely over bought condition, with the price making lower lows without making higher highs and a good sized gap in the high 8s. Very bearish short term, IMO. Regards, Don PS: My opinions are my own, subject to change without notice, are included for entertainment purposes only, and are not to be taken as investment advise. I also claim the immunity afforded those making forward looking projections that later turn out to be hog wash.