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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zhivago who wrote (20395)	3/7/1998 4:48:00 PM
From: M CAHILL	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 97611

DELL is a stock I've own and would buy again. What scares me is when it move up and down like it has between 140 and 130....and it's PE ratio....and cheaper PC prices.....and not owning it when it moves up. The day I sold my tech stocks I slept like a baby. They say sale when you see your company on the cover of a magazine. Well INTC has hit several covers recently and CPQ probably will next month. Now I own TD.

To: Zhivago who wrote (20395)	3/7/1998 5:04:00 PM
From: ed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

This is just my guess with some reaons. CPQ had already dropped from $37 to $25 (assume the information of after hour clos is correct) , it is 32% correction in two to three weeks, which means the effect of the bad news has been reflected on the stock price. Look at INTC, the stock price flied from $78 to $95 and drop back to $76 (after hour close when the bad news on Intel was announced) , a 22% correction and stock went up more than $2 on Friday. So, I do not think CPQ will correct too much on Monday, since all the bad effect has already been built into the stock price in the past two to three weeks. The big boys has already een out, and maybe some back at around $27 to $28, just look at the trading patterns last Thursday and Friday, 47 million shares, 37 million shares, and stock price did not drop. So On Monday, there maybe some smotional selling at the open, price may drop to $24, or $23, then smart money will jump in, and small investors will also jump in, the price will back to $25 and over at the close. From there on, things are clear, the big boys will start to accumulate from there, and the short will start to cover at this level, and the price of the stock will start turn around from there. This is just my 2 cent, of course the stock price may drop all the way to $15, $10, and end up with wall paper, but with most reasonable judgement, I do not think that will happen at all. Can you imagine a company with revenues larger than INTEL, with bright potential , the stock price drop to the teens? No way. With low $20s, a lot of big fund managers, small investors will jump in , and buying the stock like crazy, and it is the time to squeeze the short and short starts to cover (downward potential is very limitted from here, and there is less and less incentive and more and more risk to hold the short at this level). Besides, with the write off of those inventory, the profit in the second quarter will fly really high. The bad factor of UNCERTAINTY is cleared. This is just my two cent ............ Welcome any comments. The inventory issue is really not that serious, with $700 PCs in the market from CPQ, I think the CPQ managers is now taking care of it , and will be over in less than one quarter.