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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robbie who wrote (17307)	3/7/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: akidron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Robbie... I read your post... in fact I read a great % of the cpq and intc threads last night (somebody posted message 50,000 on the intc thread last night). I would like to add this.... management at amat did not see 95 comming and in november last year were in denial that sea was going to have any sinificant effect on amat's earnings... it seems crazy now but I belived them for a while... check my posts.. and remained bullish... you might remember that directly after that cc, the stock ran up to 40, I was fortunate enough to get out of my calls, surfice to say that the stock has not revistited 40... IMO and in teri's, and in buxx, and in daves opinion (although DD and bucks had been preaching this for a while) the cc the q was a very negative event, because they basically admitted that everything they had said previously was wrong and that they now don't even see the short term clearly, because japan could still yet turn around and bite them.... I say all this to say that management is often blind to the macro enviroment... because it is micro managing to achieve r&d and revenue efficiancies and keep the product developing... this is not a crime.. it is the way it works... do you think AMAT would have undertaken the massive facility epansion in this enviroment, would cpq have bought dec... no way... it was part of a micro stratergy that was overtaken by events... I think cpq has a long way to fall... because I think dec's earnings are really going to suck... and I can't see a single reason why amat should be trading at these lofty levels as it is not growing... a pe of 20 on 1.40 is a reasonable valuation for amat - a great co. that is nither growing revenue or profits... of course at 25 or less AMAT represents a terrific bargin... sorry about the grammer... I don't have time to check it