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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (17351)	3/8/1998 6:14:00 PM
From: Richard Richardson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Thanks for your response. It further strengthens my belief in a buy and hold strategy for AMAT.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (17351)	3/8/1998 6:18:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, if we take the opinions of the 23 threaders who made estimates into account, there is at least one who guesses 40 for YE'99. I would dismiss that as an outlier, but it happens to be BB's estimate. He has a good track record so far. BB: would you care to revise that number? (Brian: I know he won't, just to irritate us) geocities.com LO98 HI98 YE98 YE99 ave 26.8 53.6 48.5 75.4 std 2.8 8.0 8.4 16.0 min 20.0 38.0 34.0 40.0 max 31.0 70.0 62.0 100.0 GM geocities.com

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (17351)	3/8/1998 9:16:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

BK Re: Since we are at the start of an up cycle, AMAT will be awarded a higher multiple because strong eps % gains are around the corner and no MM worth his poceket-watch wants to be left standing at the station, waving as the train leaves. How can you possibly think we are at the start of an upcycle at this point in time? In 6 months, maybe, but I don't see any signs of increased spending for capital equipment by chip companies on the horizon. Don't delude yourself, things will get worse before they get better, IMO. Earnings estimates are weakening in the tech sector and the up coming onslaught of computer pricing as well as the, soon to be, glut of foundry fabs/chips will insure that chip prices are dirt cheap as competition for foundry business gets cut throat within 9-12 months. It takes huge contracts and good margins/profitability to continue to fund fab expansion and equipment purchases. There are few chip manufacturing companies announcing very high profitability lately, even the mighty Intel is feeling the earnings pinch. All that is lacking is IBM making a negative or decreased earnings statement and we could re-visit the '96 slump again, soon. In case you haven't noticed DRAM, CPU, and commodity chip companies are floundering in the rough seas of excess capacity and competive pricing, where it's "every company for itself" just trying to survive the ongoing turbulence. It is typical that when a company is trying to compete and survive that they pull in the sails and run with the rough seas while everyone mans the pumps, rather than trying to fight against the fury of the storm. In other words, they cut back on unnecessary expenses and eliminate overhead costs and make do with what they have until things get better. AS for the MM's/fund managers standing at the station waving as the train departs, maybe they want to make sure it is the right train before they get aboard. Does the ticket match the destination??? Just my opinion, BB