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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Gottfried who wrote (17368)3/8/1998 10:20:00 PM
From: jtechkid  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 70976
 
i think amat will break 30 this weak as the market finally starts to realize this is not the bottom or a one quarter problem. i think amat will be around 32 tomorrow and i believe next week will be ugly as the markets stops shrugging off eps. according to first call, first quarter eps have been reduced more sharply and shown the worst growth since 1990. on the street .com which everyone knows has an interesting FACTS about first call-which does eps estimates they -cannot understand why stocks are going up while earning this quarter will represent the worst showing since 1990 in comparison to growth and wall street reducing estimates. that is a scary thought and the argument is that the environment represents increased liquidity to justify the valuation. my point the writing is on the wall for another correction. own march 35 and 32 puts on amat-also own dow jones april 85 puts around 2.25 . DJX IS THE SYBOL



To: Gottfried who wrote (17368)3/8/1998 10:26:00 PM
From: Steve Byers  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 70976
 
Barrons, page 20 is very interesting Technical analysis, more cautionary on levels than anything else, particularly the tech sector, but overall too... this is NOT my bag, but would really like to understand more, even if to understand what other market watchers are looking at, and what the telltale signs are to THEM... as I DO believe that these signals CAN result in precipitous moves... have a buy order in at 32 1/2... and think I'll leave it there... but will put the next order in at 31...and will hold on to my current small short position for a while longer... I really DO think that several more pre-announcements may very well drive the sector lower, and then actual announcements could bring about a short term correction... for rebound in (say) late April, early May... from a level of 7900 or so??? we'll see... Iraq and Bosnia are still wild cards, don't think Slick Willie is going to come down as I thought in January... (what a sorry state of ethics in the general public who think that the Clinton White House is doing anything BUT obstructing justice... the whole damage control network, attacking attackers, using the bully pulpit... I just can't wait for Bill to be out, don't much care who takes office after him, just as long as it is someone who isn't so blatantly lying to the public...)

but back to the thread, market is toppy at 8500 dow... with pre-announcements coming daily the past few days, I REALLY do believe that other CEO's and CFO's will take the better part of valor and come in with weaker numbers for the quarter to protect future quarters to SOME extent... why not??? in another 2 months, if the markets are better, they could INCREASE their estimates, and pump the markets up.... thats my scenario... THEN its a hold... no more trading, don't want to miss the upcycle... whether its one, two or three quarters away, want to be there, fully...

just my few thoughts....

Steve Byers