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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nevada who wrote (4550)	3/9/1998 3:57:00 PM
From: Ploni	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

we must each consider when we are going to exit This is very difficult. Several weeks ago, I was thinking of covering YHOO for a small loss, at 59. I wish I had covered. I wish I'd gone long. But I hoped that the tide had turned, and the stock would drop to where I'd have a gain. If YHOO again drops to 59, will I have the courage to remain flat, or will I cover and exit flat, after months of absorbing pain? Is it reasonable to expect that some of these shorts will fall 90%, based on valuation alone (excluding the stocks that have some fraudulent aspect)? IMPX went from 1 1/2 on 3/16/95 to 23 1/2 on 5/7/96, a run-up even more impressive than YHOO's and AMZN's. Now it's at 1 3/32. Can the same thing happen to YHOO, AMZN, et al?

To: Nevada who wrote (4550)	3/9/1998 3:58:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

Nevada: >>I am 70% short- scmm at 50, amzn at 77 wdry at 24, and so forth so I am in the same boat as many of you. (Also avnt and zona short at significantly higher levels, thank God). I would remind all the shorts of two facts. First, when the market falls we will be rewarded. But note the large returns which we seek come at a price. A price we must willingly bear- that of absorbing the risk of the transactions. << Curious, my short exposure is pretty close to yours. I hope all the shorts in this thread read your post. In the US, I teach Management Science (my Ph.D. is in Operations Research) but I have a good knowledge of accounting and finance from my MBA/business days. I do teach Finance and Accounting in MBA programs overseas. One question: do you have any suggestions on any material that may help me to learn to read financial statements of banks and insurance companies? I am quite lost when it comes to these puppies. Pancho

To: Nevada who wrote (4550)	3/9/1998 7:17:00 PM
From: Mr Logic	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

College prof, >>It is this insane world that allows us to ultimately make the wealth we seek<< Very well put. The way me make money here is by leveraging our ability to understand fundamentals with our experience, but now more than ever, by trying to understand the psychology. Silicon Investor is great for triggering ideas and curiosity, but right now it is an amazing window to collective psyche. Respecting the view of longs on (long list of overpriced stocks) is important. Fundamentally I think the private investor longs are in two categories: 1. Go with the market and hope to avoid being the last one holding the bag (undeniably lucrative recently) 2. Exited people getting in on the act, favouring companies who seem to be doing the right thing, irrespective of fundamentals. I am short on a number of companies that I actually think are good companies who will do well - but the numbers just don't add up. Finally shorted AOL this morning, and I will probably be subscribing to them in a few weeks!