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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GlobalMarine who wrote (14265)	3/9/1998 10:21:00 PM
From: joe smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

rand, where is the current value of score posted and how often is it updated? in light of recent events this should push out the builing further which would allow a longer run to the upside when the oil oversupply is under control. js

To: GlobalMarine who wrote (14265)	3/9/1998 10:42:00 PM
From: Czechsinthemail	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Because there is a fairly small margin between production capacity and demand, eventually demand will outstrip production and oil prices will rise. It also means there will be a need for lots of drilling to replace reserves depleted by increasing production. What is easy to forget is that we've had an extraordinarily warm winter and a slowdown in Asia happening at the same time Iraq and OPEC are increasing production. Those are tough fundamentals for the oil market to digest. But investors considering the drilling companies are trying to read the future. At some point, regardless of oil prices, the drillers become desirable stocks to buy based on their earnings prospects and/or their relative value compared with other stocks. It is hard to predict when investors will decide we're at that point. Notice how quickly the drillers responded to the rumor of an OPEC meeting that might result in a cutback. I think the background situation is incredible value and low prices. The drillers may go down further as long as people feel confident they can wait out further declines. But at some point the drillers will once again take off quickly to the upside, reflecting the combination of short-covering and wannabe bulls not wanting to miss out on the long-term positives for the industry. That's why it's hard to predict where drilling stocks will go. Most are still considerably above their January lows even though crude prices are lower. If it looks clear that they will remain above their January lows, that alone may be enough to prompt a rally. Baird