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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr Logic who wrote (193)	3/10/1998 9:48:00 PM
From: Raptor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4509

Patrick ... I'm no expert in high finance, trying to figure out what to pay for a company. But, I do know that at some point in the distant past (several hundred postings ago, no doubt), there was some reference of information about what the ERP market was expected to be (worldwide I believe). I do not know whether these figures also factor in services such as consulting, training and subsequent maintenance. Based on these numbers, if you can put any credence in them, I guess you could look at what one organization's share of that pie might be, and so on. I don't know how that might relate to your $12 billion. Also, are you assuming continued projections at today's rate? MSFT used to be in the same sort of situation as PSFT is today. I mean a younger company commanding incredible multiples. Again, I have no specific statistics, but I do believe MSFT's multiples are a little more sane these days, albeit higher than other more 'traditional' businesses. I don't think PSFT will continue to double or more every year for the next 5 to 10 years. They have already showed signs of slowdown (75%?). So 5 years from now the multiples may not be the same. Does this make any sense? I don't have numbers on hand because, frankly, it doesn't matter to me and they won't change my mind at this time. I make no apologies, but I have a very simple philosophy in my investment with PSFT (applies only to this stock). It is not based on TA or FA or any detailed analysis. It is a simple belief in the future based on what I have seen in the past and know today. It is based on my closeness to the company and business through my consulting work on their system (exclusively PSFT and the HR product line). As long as they continue to be a solid company, I am going to stick with them. When I re-read this, something else struck me - it's also about a relationship. I feel I have a relationship with the company (actually there is one on paper I suppose) and I believe in their people. If I invest in MSFT, ORCL BAAN SAP DELL - anything - I don't really know the people. Now, I don't mean I have a personal relationship with Duffield or Morris, but I have enough connections and relationships that I feel very comfortable. But, I will not be blind to changes down the road, either. I have been through that scene in the 80's. I cannot be bothered getting into serious analysis of BAAN or SAP or any other company vs PSFT and which is the best place to have money in, etc. I have placed my bets with PSFT and I'll leave other investment decisions to fund managers who do this sort of thing for a living. That said, I have been known to dabble in other stocks, but PSFT is my sleeper and is my ticket to the future (it's already got me on the way and I hope for more). Some might call me crazy (most eggs in one basket theory, mortgaged house to buy PSFT). There, I have laid out my rather unconventional investment style (for PSFT) and I understand about the high ratios and all, but it is systemic across many many high tech stocks. Until and unless there is some seed change in evaluations in 'the market', I am not worrying. If there is a hit of this nature, I believe it will be broad based. And I would hurt and feel the pain if PSFT all of a sudden dropped to 50% of its value and went into a 10% growth mode. Yes, it would be painful for the lost chances (as in a gamble), but I would still be ahead on the bottom line. I assume this sort of catastrophy is why some people anguish over the high multiples. I'm not quite sure why I went into all of this, but if it helps you understand where I come from, then fine. And I believe everyone has to choose their own path for what works for them. I meet many people, usually employees of PSFT clients, who shake their heads at the growth in PSFT and often say they should buy some, but never do. These are intelligent people, but this sort of thing may be out of their comfort zone.