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To: Yakov Lurye who wrote (1488)	3/11/1998 9:56:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2946

Yakov, I don't remember seeing any reduced backlog numbers coming out of SVGI. Rather, the rate of growth in the backlog was beginning to slow - a good sign in that one isn't telling prospective customers to wait 2 years or more for a machine. Thread, Yesterday, I mentioned that 3 of the 4 lithography customers had warned. Is this a warning from the 4th? ... Dow Jones Newswires -- March 11, 1998 IBM Singapore Sees Slow Domestic Growth, Warns Of Tough 1998 Dow Jones Newswires SINGAPORE -- Growth in Singapore's computer market will slow substantially in 1998 as a result of the regional economic downturn, IBM Singapore general manager Lawrence Wee told reporters Wednesday. IBM Singapore registered double-digit sales growth in 1997, Wee said, but he declined to give further details. The government and various research firms have put domestic computer sales growth at about 20% in the past two years. Wee said there will be some areas in the domestic computer market, such as information technology services, that will continue to register strong growth. He said IBM Singapore, a wholly-owned subsidiary of International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), will also work with more third-party companies to sell to customers, reducing its emphasis on direct sales. These have been goals established at the headquarters level and are slowly being implemented in subsidiaries around the world, said Wee. By Joseph Rajendran;

To: Yakov Lurye who wrote (1488)	3/11/1998 2:21:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2946

Excellent post Yakov. Thanks for sharing your clear thoughts. I've held this stock so long, I just can't bring myself to sell around 20. To think it was in the high-30s recently. Are you holding or moving on? Going to self-flagellate for awhile, Bob

To: Yakov Lurye who wrote (1488)	3/11/1998 8:51:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2946

<The question arises, why did analysts ignore the reduced backlog and left the earnings estimates at the previous quarter levels (even slightly higher - 39c vs. 37c) My guess is that analysts would not do it unless somehow assured by management that progress is being made in securing some of the "lost" Asian orders. This agrees with the latest story about counting on Asian orders outside the backlog. IMO, a rather irresponsible approach on the part of the management.> Papken ("Mr. T") said in the last conference call that although the stated backlog is down those worried about this don't understand the business... our customers are telling us they want the machines! Not an exact qoute but pretty damn close. It basically sounded to me the same as the line he's always touted... they can sell all they can produce. And he said the above to an analyst concerned about the backlog and future sales! "those worried about the backlog, they don't understand the business, our customers are telling us they want the machines".... get the freakin tape... I swear that was the jist of what he said. Well Papken baby.... get your buy orders out for your stock you big fat slob! Cause you'll get all you want down here near book value now if you want it! Put you overvalued salary where you mouth is! And while your at it give AMAT a call... maybe they'll pay $23 and you can cash in those hard earned options you granted yourself! Will someone please E-Mail this to Papken! DAK

To: Yakov Lurye who wrote (1488)	3/12/1998 12:32:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 2946

One thing to keep in mind is that sales of long lead-time capital equipment is often (particularly in trying or boom times) a cat & mouse game between the supplier and customer. The Asian customers have been partly in denial that things were going to get as bad as they have and partly posturing to allow themselves the maximum amount of flexibility in negotiating delivery schedules and pricing. They don't want to be put back at the end of the waiting line if things somehow improve to increase their borrowing ability. And they don't want to be stuck with charges if they need to cancel orders, which they tend not to do - repeated rescheduling being preferable. The suppliers get a lot of their input from their biased customers. Salespeople and management tend to be genetically programmed optimists anyway who like to believe the goldy locks story their customers have been telling them. I listened to several conference calls last quarter, including SVGI's, in which management said that customers couldn't help but spring for the newer generations of equipment because it has an economic pay-back and enables newer IC device production. What failed to come through is that many Asian companies don't have the credit to buy products and are so in debt that launching into the next generation of production capability at this juncture is pure folly. There is a lag between the time the financial institutions start tightening credit and companies credit facilities dry up and reality fully sets in. IMO, the next series of conference calls will reflect the realization that many of the order streams will be frozen or will dry up entirely for at least a couple more quarters. I don't think all the bad news is yet on the table. Why invest in a stock or sector that is on the way down?