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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: seth thomas who wrote (1212)	3/11/1998 9:40:00 AM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

The gartner report will have even more impact. Gartner is estimating 2 years for complete integration. They estimate a 20% chance of success by the end of 1999. They are advising all prospective sebl/scop purchasers to get a CONTRACTUAL commitment for an integrated product. I'll say it again - I am not short SEBL - I think they've got a good march quarter ahead, but I am becoming convinced that this merger will have a significant negative short term impact.

To: seth thomas who wrote (1212)	3/11/1998 10:04:00 AM
From: Melissa McAuliffe	Respond to of 6974

<<You're being funny, right?>> If I am trying to be funny I will usually end my statement with a unless it is obviously intended to be funny. I know that you are a VNTV zealot and as such feel that this somewhat influences your statements. It is easy to come up with what will be wrong when it suppports your own position. I seriously doubt all these CFO's and CIO's are sitting there right now wringing their hands going..."WHAT have we done. Things will now be screwed up at least two years." But you are certainly entitled to your opinion. Have you ever been through something like? I think not based on some of your statements. It's just not what happens. I've been there before and thus feel differently based on my experience. Not that it couldn't happen. I think that had scop acquired sebl (not realistic I know) it would be a very different story. Unfortunately, SCOP's major weakness was a lack of focus on sales & marketing. And they could NEVER have pulled this off. I think it's important to take a look at the company, ask yourself what strengths do they need to pull this off and then decide if you think it will happen. Personally, I do based upon what I know about sebl. Also with respect to contacts changing, etc. My understanding is that the scop organization from a support perspective isn't going to change in the near term. Remember these were completely different products both of which require their own support personnel. No one person can support everything. I know you will not change your position nor do I expect you to. You've made that perfectly obvious. I offer this more for others who are reading this thread and appreciate another perspective on the situation. I personally stayed away from sebl for quite some time based on much of the commentary on these threads and I hope others are not falling into the same trap. I believe there are people on these threads who just don't like Tom Siebel for whatever reason and this clouds their judgement. I don't know him nor do I care if I know him. As someone said to me recently, "There are a lot of successful companies run by jerks. I don't know if he is and I don't care. All I care is that he makes money for his shareholders. Look at Larry Ellison as a good example. The difference between us is that I don't dislike VNTV. I just like SEBL better. Since I am trying to increase my capital, I would even consider buying VNTV again if I felt it was going somewhere. I seriously doubt you would every buy SEBL no matter what the situation. Melissa