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Technology Stocks : CheckFree (CKFR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charlie Smith who wrote (2493)	3/11/1998 10:46:00 AM
From: Brooks Jackson	Respond to of 8545

Ooops! Now it's UP. I should have been placing my order rather than posting to the thread.

To: Charlie Smith who wrote (2493)	3/12/1998 1:57:00 AM
From: Robert Gintel	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 8545

"You make your best decisions when you know what you own" That simple statement Charlie contains an enormous amount of investment wisdom. I might add conversely, "Don't own what you don't know!" What does it say about those professional money managers who paniced and sold huge amounts of Checkfree stock in the last couple of weeks? I bought, and I bought heavily, throughout this correction. I keep asking myself, "Who in their right minds, once having taken the trouble to buy the stock, would sell it now just when the company was on the threshhold of it's golden years. To answer a question asked of me by a previous poster, the Pete Kight I have met is a terribly focussed executive. He rises at dawn and works out in the gym before arriving at his desk usually at 7:30 AM. He told me he started his company about 16 years ago in a garage with $700 of borrowed money. He has surrounded himselfself with a group of outstanding managers and new faces are gradually replacing those who Pete feels the company has outgrown or no longer fit into the new culture that he envisions for the future. Some of the recent insider sales reflect former employees and entreprenours who are cashing in on the stock they received either in options or in exchange for companies they sold to Checkfree. The incident today with repect to the handling of corporate news, reflects the incompetence of the Dow Jones News Service who received the full press release and immediately published only a headline which said that Checkfree would take a substantial 3rd quarter charge. Inside of two minutes trigger happy traders sold the stock down from 22 to 20 1/2 before trading was suspended. The charge in question, as has been accurately pointed out here, is essentially meaningless in the scheme of things, and was forced upon the company by accountants at the SEC over company objections. The company is definitely operating now on a cash positive basis and depending upon how the company wants to manage it's earnings by its treatment of Genesis related expenses, there's an even chance that they could actually achieve modest profitability in the current quarter, earlier than genearally expected. What we are about to experience as equity stakeholders, is a rapid buildup in the years ahead of a non-cyclical stream of earnings, with each quarter being better than the preceding one. How big that stream of income becomes and what the market makes of it, is anyone's guess at this time, but these are the things that cause stocks to go up, and I sure want to be aboard for the ride. As far as anyone can determine, Checkfree is a clear bill payment winner in the banking industry through it's alliance with IBM and the major banks. I think we can anticipate in the weeks immediately ahead that Checkfree will also emerge with a commanding lead in bill presentment as well by capturing a big chunk of the major billers who may have decided at this time to ally themselves with Checkfree, thus providing investors with greater vision into further growth and profitability in the out years. Microsoft's problem, among others, as I see it, is that the industry is moving ahead rapidly and won't wait for new beta tests to prove themselves. By the time competition catches up with where Checkfree is today, Checkfree will be leagues ahead with new generation products and services and invaluable, hard to replace, links with major customers. Once entrenched with these links and multi year contracts, It will be hard for anyone to dislodge Checkfree, unless there is a failure to execute by Checkfree's management. That is not a bet I would take, given the team I have met and the tremendous record of accomplishment and performance that has been turned in so far. Checkfree is going to be a big excess cash generator over the next few years. I wish there were less shares outstanding and I have been trying to get management to consider getting started on a stock buyback program to offset the large dilution in shares that has taken place through acquisitions, generous stock options, and now warrants. I believe that large investors were spooked recently first by Gary Craft's view of the world (Will Princeton Telecom be Gary's next investment banking client?) and then by Lehman Brother's memo which after disagreeing with Gary craft's memo then goes on to say that they are not upgrading Checkfree to a buy from an outperform, because of the modest growth in consumer sign ons. I think those two pieces raised unnecessary concerns and confusions in the minds of investors, large and small alike and contributed, if not caused, the recent downturn. Lehman analysts are telling customers that Checkfree is a good buy if it gets down to the low teens. I guess it would be a better buy if it got down to $10. After a while, it almost becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. In my not so humble opinion, I think those two houses have done a great disservice to the their customers who may have been so foolish to listen to them and have opened up both a great investments and trading opportunity for others of us who think we have a better understanding of what we own. Predicting stock prices is a stupid game, especially when you do it publicly. Nevertheless, I think this correction is over, and, like others here, I put my money where my mouth is.