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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (17498)	3/11/1998 11:14:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BB, thanks for your opinion. Should we then consider selling when the series of down arrows is mucked up by the first up arrow? <g> This is a rhetorical question. GM

To: Big Bucks who wrote (17498)	3/11/1998 11:18:00 AM
From: David Rosenthal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BB, Aseco warned yesterday and they are in the back-end. Their news release reads like orders have dropped-off drastically since their earnings announcement a month before. Last B2B was slightly under 1 with ~110% back-end and ~90% front-end. If Aseco is representative, there is a good possibility that next B2B drops dramatically (though tempered somewhat by moving average). This is something to be aware of. Dave

To: Big Bucks who wrote (17498)	3/11/1998 12:30:00 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

Big Bucks, let me add to what you have stated:---I was looking for ways to insure that my gains would not be wiped out in the future; I remembered your chart, so I requested it... Using PsychoAnalysis (with apologies to the late Dr.Sigmund Freud) to dig into the average Investor's mind, I came up with these observations:---The Investor realizes that AMAT is in a Cyclical industry, with 2 or more Up earnings quarters followed by 2 or more down quarters and so on...So, when AMAT is posting higher earnings quarters, the Investor is thinking--- why should I be buying more when I see down quarters ahead?...The Investor really looks ahead; Carl Johnson of Infrastructure learned a lesson when in 1996 he missed 40/sh additional gain by investing at 62/sh instead of at 22/sh (because, using his market indicators, he waited for AMAT to have an Up quarter before making his move)... This Thread is also a Good indicator:--- When many of us are waiting to buy in the 20s or 10s, the others of us are buying in the 30s in anticipation of the run-up to 60 and the 100s later (a 10 point decline from 30 is viewed as an unexpected bonus to take by buying more)...Then when, in the 100s, many of us (including myself) are looking ahead for further gains (and the Earnings arrows are Up)---that's the time to be selling...History may not exactly repeat itself but it can help us make a good guess of the future...