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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (14485)	3/11/1998 3:12:00 PM
From: A. Fineigler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Baird, We're about to (in approx. 2 months) enter the summer driving season, when crude and gas prices usually peak, and leave the winter season, when natural gas and heating oil usually peak. So natural gas may be peaking now for 1998. From what I have read, in the spring transition period oil prices are generally, and it is therefore a good time to buy anything that is based on oil prices. Doesn't always work, but I've read that that is the usual annual cycle. AF P.S. If El Nino theory works this year, we'll have a very cold winter 98-99, which will drive up oil and natural gas - and drillers presumably.

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (14485)	3/11/1998 3:28:00 PM
From: 007	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Baird, I recently asked MDCO about their oil/gas ratio, and they said that 50% of their rigs are drilling for gas. Does anyone have figures for other drillers? If it's true that esv is at 80% gas, then that would be a nice plus in their favor. However, ESV might not rise as fast with oil either. I guess these decisions depend in part on where you think we are in the oil price cycle. In any case, the best fundamental indicator for the shallow water boys is the trend in utilization rates and dayrates. If oil dropped more and stayed down and gas continued to rise, I wonder if the rig demand would remain the same for GOM jackups. If rig demand did stay the same while oil dropped, these stocks would still probably get dragged down by the sector. It's no use. I'll just have to suspend my present mission and go down to Venezuela and take matters into my own hands. On the way, I've got to go step on a pissant. The things I do for you guys... 007