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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DavidG who wrote (29961)	3/11/1998 5:14:00 PM
From: johnlea	Respond to of 53903

next week (or maybe even the remainder of this week) will be real interesting. i concur with those who are saying this quarter's numbers are already built into to price. here's some food for thought. 1. if earnings are < estimates, some downside action but not drastic. 2. if earnings are on or above target, mu goes up, possibly strongly. BUT. . . 3. i agree with larry, mu will most likely move with the sox. this trend is down. 4. from a ta perspective, mu has created a "triangle" in the last seven days. it will probably break out of this triangle within 4 trading days. technically, when stocks break out of these triangles they tend to have a good run in the direction of the breakout. for all those who are short and long, it's time for a few days of anxiety.

To: DavidG who wrote (29961)	3/11/1998 5:28:00 PM
From: pat pasquale	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

dg, pls xplain, how can a stock that is up 60% have such bad #s already factored into its stock price this 90 day run was due to GS upgrades BUT not its downgrades, dram pricing went up to 3.60 BUT now its under 2.30, earnings warnings from companies making money whether chips makers or box sellers, IMF loans, competition is still in business etc. etc. whats left, yes this stock price always does what it shouldn't but what if it does.... see i think all the potential GOOD is already factored in this time, and there's nothing left to upside, this sector dies till after year 2K trade well pp

To: DavidG who wrote (29961)	3/11/1998 7:48:00 PM
From: Kerry Phineas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

DavidG, the consensus estimate is currently -.13. You think that the whisper number is 30 cents below that? It is rather illogical that the stock has gone up while near term earnings estimates have gone down, but I guess one could easily make the case that recent Commerce decisions have been favorable to MU from a long term perspective. However: 1. the IMF decisions were not 2. The private market value of MUEI is now lower, assuming the CPQ news affects this company 3. Korean companies seem to be finding some capital by liquidating non-core businesses 4. Where's Microstamp? 5. How many more companies within Micron can Micron sell? 6. The value of its inventory has presumably dropped in value considerably since last earnings. For the near future MU either has to have earnings or sell off non-core businesses or it goes against its credit arrangement with whatever bank its set up with. If MU is as overvalued as many think eventually it'll be possible to judge the company by its DRAM production alone if thats all we're left with. Last year before MU made any big moves it would stall on low volume like it seems to be doing now. BTW, imo MU is setting itself up nicely for another big fall, but when and from where I have no clue.