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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rhet0ric who wrote (9310)	3/12/1998 10:16:00 AM
From: Alomex	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 213173

What do you think of the stock's recent rise. Do you think it's sustainable? I think a price around $20 per share is sustainable. This is nothing to sneer at: 50% higher than the close just three months ago. The runup to $26 is a bet on announcement of a great new CEO soon, if it doesn't pan out the stock will retrace back to $20-22. The big difference between my former strongly bearish position and my current "hold" recommendation is that at long last AAPL found a way out. They gave up on the battle vs. Wintel and moved into niche mode, where they seem to be doing alright. There are clouds ahead: The upgrade to G3 will at some point wither down, putting pressure on sales. At that time they will need at least one of three things to sustain sales 1.- A susbstantially faster G4 that entices users to switch even though users might be satisfied with their current G3, 2.- strong Rhapsody sales, or 3.- a low cost NC-like device. In all likelihood, only a combination of the three can help Apple maintain sales in 1999. Apple is not as much out of the woods as most people here like to think it is. Last year in August it went all the way up to $28 on an announcement of minor significance but of great hype value. It should surprise now one that Apple gave back those gains. At least this time the G3s are for real but the earnings are more of hype value than bottom line significance (but very welcome nonetheless). This stock is getting slightly ahead of itself. I asked to wait and see if the $25 price was sustainable, I think that when it went back to $22 and then started going up again it showed that indeed a new support line has formed around $22, and if I was long on the stock, I would have bought at around $23.50 per share (the stock went much lower, but by the time you realize the fall has stopped, you are a bit aways from the bottom). As I said in another posting $30 per share at the end of the year is within the realm of the possible, my target is somewhat lower. I think the recovery will be difficult and that there will be disappointing quarters along the way.