Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ms. X who wrote (1693)	3/11/1998 11:15:00 PM
From: lobster	Respond to of 34808

Jan, I will see what I can do to whittle away at the FA's. I will not be able to start until Monday b/c of my trip. When I do, I will send you the results. Off to VA, Lobster

To: Ms. X who wrote (1693)	3/12/1998 10:21:00 AM
From: Al Serrao	Respond to of 34808

Jan, what a great piece of work! Thanks again for your help on the Murphy Biotech Fund. Amgen up 5 points this morning! Looks like this sector is starting to get on fire. You got a great site here and I hope I can contribute with the rest.

To: Ms. X who wrote (1693)	3/12/1998 11:39:00 AM
From: Mr. BSL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34808

<Sectors under 55%> Jan, Real nice post. I'll try and do some FA on these stocks tonight. For you guys with Value Line on-line or on CD-rom or whatever - I'm curious of what stocks pop out of Tom's broker friend's formula - VL 1 or 2, 20% growth rate over the last five years and PE that is <= 75% of that growth rate. Duke

To: Ms. X who wrote (1693)	3/12/1998 12:18:00 PM
From: wizzards wine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34808

To All: Zacks rating on Jan's list of 55 ss is strong sell, s is sell, h is hold, b is buy and sb is strong buy numbers below insiders and institutions are percentages held as reported by Zacks, and I don't know why they sometimes exceed 100%. Ticker....Zacks......Insiders....Institutions AGPH B @ 38.43 ALKS B 22.13 BGEN H 46.22 CNTO S 36.38 HGSI B 43.94 16.7 42.8 IDPH B 43.25 25.8 68 IGEN S 27.00 8.3 14.9 INHL H 30.13 35 43 LCBM S 19.00 .5 49 LTEK NA MAM S 23.38 11.7 60 MLNM B 19.00 19 32 NXCO S 17.56 8.8 44 SCHK S 25.50 BSX S 58.13 35 47 PHSYB S 68.63 RXT H 13 96 WLP B 58.63 .01 58 PGN na AVEI SB 40.00 25 37 CVTY S 17.5 1.1 72 GDT SB 73.5 .36 80 HGR B 15.00 45 67 CMD SB 29.75 RXT H 13 96 CEL S 21.38 TAR H 35.00 TEO H 34.94 CCL H 61.81 28.00 43 MAR H 79.00 10 45 TRVS B 26.00 50 30 FGCI H 31.94 23 75 KIDD SB 29.5 19.6 38 ZAP NA BRY S 15.13 18 30 GI H 19.56 22 63 INT H 19.5 11 57 REXI NA BY H 24.25 50 57 CVOL NA LUC H 30.31 .5 64 AWIN B 21.88 49 66 DCI B 24.06 6 55 EEC H 6.38 35 16 EESI H 25.13 49 31 FARC NA NASI NA SRSL NA BEXP S 12.63 RES NA LLTC B 68.94 1.5 86 BBRC B 39.03 52 54 MCRL SB 36.88 33 53 SDLI H 21.25 15 75 SPLI NA YILD NA Have fun everyone, my neck is now stiff. Later Preston

To: Ms. X who wrote (1693)	3/12/1998 8:46:00 PM
From: bobster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34808

Hi gang, Figured I would contribute for a change. I'll get to all the groups, but I'll bite them off in pieces. Here is a look at Jan's Biomedics/Genetics group from a quantitative point of view. I had to get many of these numbers from lots of different sources so they may not match exactly the numbers you see on whatever you use. Also, many of these companies are small and take big write-offs on both revenues and earnings. Some even do funky things like adding in tax credits to revenues. I tried to pull most of that stuff out of the numbers, but I certainly could have missed some. Many of these companies are fairly acquisitive, or have recently entered into funding agreements with larger companies. That is why some of the growth #'s are so amazing. If you find one you like in this group, you should definitely review this stuff. I'm looking at these companies from the point of view of an investor who would like to hold these for at least a little while. If you want a day trade, or weekly, or maybe even a monthly trade, most of this stuff doesn't matter. There is very little correlation between the very short term movement of a stock price with the underlying fundamentals. Notes: Earnings and Revenue figures are compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings or EPS or Earnings per share are all the same thing. Negative numbers in ( ) I'll do this group in two parts. Here is the first. AGPH Recent Earnings growth......last Q .15......prior year Q (.46) ....................................2 Q's ago .11......prior year Q (.57) Recent revenue growth.......last Q 104.7.....prior year Q 15.1 ......................................2 Q's ago 91.9.....prior year Q 11.2 Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....1.08 to 1.17 Nearly debt free and finances look OK to at first glance. They will pay taxes for the first time this year, IMO not a factor. There are 8 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of .39 5 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 2 down. IMO, slight positive. My conclusion: Revenue and earnings growth warrant more investigation. Couldn't find any negatives. Slight upward trend of earnings revisions increase slightly the likelihood that this stock could beat earnings estimates. I'd keep this one on the list. ALKS Recent Earnings growth......last Q (.14)......prior year Q (.23) ....................................2 Q's ago (.05)......prior year Q (.26) Recent revenue growth.........last Q 7.8.....prior year Q 4.9 ......................................2 Q's ago 8.4.....prior year Q 3.5 Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(.72) to (.79) Debt level is OK and finances look OK at first glance. Still losing money, no taxes. There are 5 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.24) 2 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 1 down. IMO neutral My conclusion: Revenue and earnings growth warrant more investigation. I would wait until they stop losing money. Could be a great play for a speculator. Stock might go up 10X over the next couple of years, or they might go out of business. Nothing looks particularly appealing to me at this time. I would toss it. BGEN Recent Earnings growth......last Q .32......prior year Q .22 ....................................2 Q's ago .27......prior year Q .10 Recent revenue growth.........last Q 109.0.....prior year Q 87.4 ......................................2 Q's ago 100.6.....prior year Q 66.8 Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....1.10 to 1.77 Debt level is OK and finances look OK at first glance. Tax rate rising from 24% to 40%(est). Could negatively impact earnings comparisons. There are 15 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of .36 0 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 2 down. IMO slight negative My conclusion: Revenue growth went from 50% to 25%. Earnings growth went from 170% to 45% to projection of 63%. These are all very high percentages but I don't like the overall trend downward. The projected turn around in the earnings growth is suspect because there is a slight downward trend in the analyst revisions. I would wait to see if earnings growth does turn around and for revenue growth to at least flatten out. For now, I'd toss it. CNTO Recent Earnings growth......last Q .04......prior year Q .04 ....................................2 Q's ago .06......prior year Q (.02) Recent revenue growth.......last Q 50.7.....prior year Q 43.8 ....................................2 Q's ago 51.4.....prior year Q 39.2 Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....0.22 to 0.21 Has a bit of debt and finances look a little shaky. Tax rate is very low, this year and last, IMO not a factor. There are 9 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.01) 1 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 2 down. IMO, slight negative. My conclusion: Earnings growth seems to have stopped and is getting worse. Revenue growth is slowing. I don't like it's financial position. I'd toss it. HGSI Recent Earnings growth......last Q (.38)......prior year Q (.50) ....................................2 Q's ago (.17)......prior year Q (.27) Recent revenue growth.........last Q 3.0.....prior year Q 3.0 ......................................2 Q's ago 6.5.....prior year Q 6.5 Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(1.04) to (1.37) Debt level is OK and finances look OK at first glance. Still losing money, no taxes. There are 2 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.41) 0 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 0 down. IMO neutral My conclusion: Nothing particularly exciting. No revenue growth and earnings are getting worse. I'd toss it. IDPH Recent Earnings growth........last Q .35......prior year Q .05 ....................................2 Q's ago (.51)......prior year Q (.26) Recent revenue growth.........last Q 26.1.....prior year Q 10.1 ........................................2 Q's ago 6.4.....prior year Q 2.9 Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(.91) to 0.49 Debt level is OK and finances look OK at first glance. No taxes last year, can't easily figure for this year. Maybe a negative There are 5 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.01) 3 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 1 down. IMO slight positive My conclusion: Only one Q of positive comparisons, next Q might be OK also especially since earnings revisions seem to be trending up slightly. Revenue growth looks nice too. This one could be worth looking into further. IGEN Recent Earnings growth......last Q (.16)......prior year Q (.15) ....................................2 Q's ago (.10)......prior year Q (.11) Recent revenue growth.........last Q 3.8.....prior year Q 4.5 ......................................2 Q's ago 5.0.....prior year Q 4.4 Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(.74) to (???) Debt level is OK and finances look OK at first glance. Still losing money, no taxes. There are 2 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.15) 0 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 2 down. IMO negative My conclusion: Revenue and earnings growth has been flat. Revision momentum is down. Could be a great play for a speculator. Stock might go up 10X over the next couple of years, or they might go out of business. Can't find a reason to hold onto this one. I'd toss it. .................to be continued

To: Ms. X who wrote (1693)	3/12/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: bobster	Respond to of 34808

Hi gang, This is the second part of Jan's Biomedics/Genetics group. If anyone didn't read this paragraph in the first part, I'll repeat it: I'll get to all the groups, but I'll bite them off in pieces. Here is a look at Jan's Biomedics/Genetics group from a quantitative point of view. I had to get many of these numbers from lots of different sources so they may not match exactly the numbers you see on whatever you use. Also, many of these companies are small and take big write-offs on both revenues and earnings. Some even do funky things like adding in tax credits to revenues. I tried to pull most of that stuff out of the numbers, but I certainly could have missed some. Many of these companies are fairly acquisitive, or have recently entered into funding agreements with larger companies. That is why some of the growth #'s are so amazing. If you find one you like in this group, you should definitely review this stuff. I'm looking at these companies from the point of view of an investor who would like to hold these for at least a little while. If you want a day trade, or weekly, or maybe even a monthly trade, most of this stuff doesn't matter. There is very little correlation between the very short term movement of a stock price with the underlying fundamentals. Notes: Earnings and Revenue figures are compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings or EPS or Earnings per share are all the same thing. Negative numbers in ( ) INHL Recent Earnings growth......last Q (.20)......prior year Q (.28) ....................................2 Q's ago (.19)......prior year Q (.20) Recent revenue growth.......last Q 4.7.....prior year Q 2.1 ......................................2 Q's ago 4.3.....prior year Q 1.8 Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(0.72) to (1.05) Nearly debt free and finances look OK to at first glance. No earnings, no taxes, this year or last. There are 8 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.26) 1 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 1 down. IMO, neutral. My conclusion: Revenue seems to be trending up nicely. Earnings are erratic and show no signs of strengthening. No real debt is unusual and kind of nice for this kind of company. This is about as borderline as it gets, but I would probably toss it out. LCBM Recent Earnings growth......last Q (.01)......prior year Q (.04) ....................................2 Q's ago (.07)......prior year Q (.05) Recent revenue growth.........last Q 6.3.....prior year Q 4.7 ......................................2 Q's ago 5.2.....prior year Q 3.6 Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(.06) to ???? Debt level is OK and finances look OK at first glance. No taxes last year, can't easily figure for this year. Maybe a negative There are 2 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.24) 0 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 0 down. IMO neutral My conclusion: Revenue growth seems OK, and earnings seem to be erratic and sort of trending up, but at a snails pace. Nothing exciting here, I'd toss it. LTEK Recent Earnings growth......last Q .34......prior year Q .30 ....................................2 Q's ago .33......prior year Q .28 Recent revenue growth.........last Q 83.6.....prior year Q 78.7 ......................................2 Q's ago 83.7.....prior year Q 77.5 Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....1.35 to 1.50 Debt level is very low and finances look pretty good at first glance. Tax rate steady at around 36%. No impact on anything. There are 2 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of .37 0 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 0 down. Neutral My conclusion: Revenue growth went from 8% to 6%. Earnings growth went from 18% to 13% to projection of 12%. These are all anemic #'s and are trending down. I'd toss it. MAM Recent Earnings growth......last Q .37......prior year Q .28 ....................................2 Q's ago .37......prior year Q .36 Recent revenue growth.......last Q 128.0.....prior year Q 138.2 ....................................2 Q's ago 128.7.....prior year Q 84.1 Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....1.39 to 1.66 Has a lot of debt and finances look just barely OK. Tax rate steady at around 36%. No impact on anything. There are 2 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of .36 0 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 1 down. IMO, slight negative. My conclusion: Earnings growth seems weak in spite of last Q's good showing. Revenues aren't looking good and the debt level is pretty high. I'd toss it. MLNM Recent Earnings growth......last Q .81......prior year Q (.16) ....................................2 Q's ago (.34)......prior year Q (.03) Recent revenue growth.........last Q 52.0.....prior year Q 9.5 ......................................2 Q's ago 13.7.....prior year Q 9.6 Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(0.00) to (0.26) Has a lot of debt and finances looks OK. Still losing money, no taxes. There are 3 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.29) 0 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 0 down. Neutral My conclusion: Revenue growth looks good. Earnings are getting worse. Might make a good speculative play. Too much debt. I'd toss it. NXCO Recent Earnings growth........last Q (.42)......prior year Q (.29) ....................................2 Q's ago (.40)......prior year Q (.14) Recent revenue growth.........last Q 1.2.....prior year Q 0.8 ........................................2 Q's ago 0.4.....prior year Q 1.7 Last 12 months EPS vs. projected EPS for the next 12 months....(1.44) to (1.32) Debt level is very low and finances look OK at first glance. Still losing money, no taxes. There are 4 analysts providing a mean estimate for next Q of (.52) 1 analysts have revised the Q estimate up, 2 down. IMO slight negative My conclusion: Everything is trending down, but company seems to be getting more analyst attention than the #'s warrant. Might be a good story here, but recent history looks poor. This should probably be looked into further. SCHK Recent IPO from last summer. Not much historical stuff to look at. The analysts seem to like it. Expecting 0.13 this Q vs. 0.03 pro forma a year ago. Worth looking into.