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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (17276)	3/12/1998 7:58:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

Rick, I was responding to the selling at $17 which was in the post to which I was responding and was also in the post that you just made. In the past, the "short term traders" haven't really had a chance to sell at prices much higher than that. My point was that the oscillating pattern of the past few years has worked well for those who bought in the low teens and sold at the high teens and such an approach would of course result in investors watching a move to $50 or eventually triple digits. I had thought that the oscillating pattern would end in 1997, because of the upcoming NDA filings. It looks like the filing will now be this month instead of last quarter (in 4Q '96 I expected the filing in 4Q '97) and last year the entire sector did not live up to expectations, largely because of failed clinicals (by others - LGND's clinicals were stellar). I really wasn't referring to you recently. Others on this board have cited "buy low, sell high" approaches, but the examples are usually after the fact. Short term timing is difficult with any stock. It's even harder on stocks that can go up or down rather abruptly, especially when gaps are left unfilled. I haven't followed your recent predictions on LGND, if any, but I do recall that shortly after LGND began it's current move, you indicated that you were selling.

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (17276)	3/12/1998 8:32:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

Just to clarify, the selling post was just after LGND was mentioned on CNBC: Message 3421299 As far dilution is concerned, it would seem that any additional dilution would come from new deals (other than existing conditions such as licensing the LLY compound, exercising of LGNDW, and paying off the GLYC note). At this time its hard to say what the other deals will do for shareholders. LGND has many alliances and each includes an equity position by the partner. Such an approach increases the vested interest of the partner and it gives LGND "no strings attached" cash. Other than the two small in-licensed products (PHOTOFRIN and Aldesleukin), LGND is heavily dependent on research to come up with new leads. They have established themselves in the forefront of IR and STAT technology with over 200 issued patents and 200 pending. The recent presentations on the small molecule mimic of G-CSF is a great example. The finding was very unexpected (a 500 dalton molecule could not only mimic G-CSF via binding to the receptor, but it could also distinguish between the mouse and human form) and sent the me toos scrambling. Long term this will be view as a VERY major event. It's current, but by no means unique. I searched the uspto data base for STATs this year and found 5 hits. Three were LGND's (two to LGND and one to Rockefeller), one was to Tularik, and one was to a Japanese group. These discoveries and patents are largely funded by monies received when partners buy equity positions. LGND has set its sites very high. Last year they reported 29 compounds in preclinical or clinical testing. This year the alliances will start to bring in money in the form of milestone payments (from AHP, ABT, GLX, LLY, and possible SBH) because drugs are entering the clinic (and LGND's development costs for these partnered compounds are low on nothing). The outstanding shares are on the high side, but the science and products under development are among the best, if not the best in the industry.

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (17276)	3/12/1998 9:21:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Actually, Your "I'm out" post: Message 3421299 is an excellent example on difficulties in timing. It was posted right after LGND traded on record volume (almost 2 million) after they were mentioned the night before (and during the following day) on CNBC because of the rat breast cancer results with Targretin. I assumed that you sold on the 12th. LGND's bid had moved to $17 before the open and the price opened at $16. However the price quickly moved into th 15's and closed at 14 1/2. Two week's earlier, when LGND was around $11, someone on this board said it was heading for $10. However, LGND had an earnings surprise and the price exploded. Some might have looked at that sharp move up a few days earlier as a selling opportunity (especially if they believed the heading for $10 post). Such a sale would of course have missed the big move up a couple of days later. On the 12th it was equally hard to call. I think that the number of shares sold in the high 15s was relatively small. A sale at that time looked smart short term (in hindsight). It took LGND a month to get back to 16. Thus someone who bought at 11 or 12 and sold on Feb 12 made money, but the profit was largely influenced by the time of the sale. Yesterday, the price jumped again (to 16 1/2). It then fell back to 16 shortly thereafter, but now its heading north again before the open. In the past you have mentioned selling at $17 and most recently you indicated that you sold somewhere between 14 1/2 and 16. You like the science, but it's not clear if you like the current price. Last year LGND indicated that they would be profitable in 1999 and would not require additional sale of stock. However, this year you sold, but plan on being on board some time before the big move up. You may have posted specifics elsewhere, but from what I saw in your posts, as far as LGND was concerned, you were/are on the sidelines after Feb 12. As I have said about others who post on this board, its very easy to call LGND with 20/20 hindsight, but short term timing can be difficult.

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (17276)	3/12/1998 3:15:00 PM
From: WTDEC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

"When the day comes where Robinson is done diluting the heck out of his shareholders, .... point that I and others have grasped..... Ligand's management has been shareholder-unfriendly. ....the "let the shareholder take it on the chin" business plan gets old." Richard, could you elaborate on what LGND management actions or lack thereof is bothering you. Also, what is business plan your talking about. I have been a LGND shareholder for some time and have always viewed the company as being in a long term development stage. I have invested in a number of developing companies over the years with satisfactory overall results and I know the market often does not reward such a stock despite good business progress (I use these times to add to my position if I like the progress). But, I also know that I, for one, have been unable to always predict just when the market is ready to reward a developing companies stockholders. Lastly, I have seen a few cases where management's 'developing' work takes on a life of its own and they need to be reminded why they have stockholders. Of course, some of them don't listen but eventually something major happens, perhaps bankruptcy. Richard, I have a view that LGND's management has been quite good (not perfect) and is tuned in to building stockholder value over time and, I believe, the markets are beginning to reward the stock. However, I am above all else a seeker of "investment truth". You are quite intelligent and see LGND differently. Understanding your view is important to me as I might have missed something. Also, if you would share your timing insights, perhaps I could learn to time my entry into developing companies more effectively. Thanks in advance. Walter