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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4838)	3/12/1998 11:04:00 AM
From: Bald Man from Mars	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Pancho: WCOM looks terrible technically. Since I know you deal with fundamentals, can you let me know why you don't like this dude ... Both apr 35 and jun 30 puts are at 1/2 wonder which one is a better deal ...

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4838)	3/12/1998 12:05:00 PM
From: Eric Klein	Respond to of 18691

Pancho, I think this belongs to you. Message 3686378 BTW, PEGA is extremely high priced based on fundamentals. Today an expert in WSJ investment dartboard suggests shorting it. Momentum is against this stock. Looks like a good short to me, in fact I already shorted it. interactive.wsj.com ...Mr. Schilit, a former accounting professor whose firm specializes in uncovering accounting policies that may cause a company's financial statements to be misleading,is recommending a short sale of Pegasystems Inc., a Cambridge, Mass., company that develops customer-service software. In a short sale, an investor sells borrowed stock, betting that the price will fall before the loan has to be repaid. Mr. Schilit says Pegasystems has typically used "aggressive" accounting methods to record most of the revenue from three-year to five-year licenses at the start of the contract, although cash payments will be received over a period of years. As a result, its accounts receivable are "humongous," he says. In November, Pegasystems announced the resignation of its auditors following what the company said was a change in accounting advice. Pegasystems subsequently restated its second-quarter earnings and released third-quarter earnings that it said reflected accounting revisions. It hasn't yet released fourth-quarter results. New auditors will be reviewing the company's books, and "my hunch is that this company may not come out of the audit with a clean bill of health," Mr. Schilit says. "When you're talking about a company's revenue line, you're going to the core of the business." Pegasystems stock fell 78.125 cents to $21.0938 on Nasdaq Wednesday.

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4838)	3/12/1998 5:18:00 PM
From: Lazlo Pierce	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Pancho, a clarification from thestreet.com re:AVEI <<For the record: An item here yesterday said Bear Stearns analyst Rick Wise had reiterated his buy on highflying Arterial Vascular Engineering (AVEI:Nasdaq) while boosting his estimates. Actually, while he did indeed boost his estimates, he was reiterating his neutral. I suppose that means he shouldn't have been lumped in with the rest of the gang that is recommending AVEI's purchase, even though they know it's headed for an eventual fall. ("Neutral": Wall Street's version of passive/aggressive behavior.)>> Dave