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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (17603)	3/12/1998 11:25:00 AM
From: Rich Uncle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I think in 30 days we will be in an "aligator" market!

To: Big Bucks who wrote (17603)	3/12/1998 12:07:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BB, >Ever grab an aligator by the jaws? Now that you've got it you can't let go, therefore it drags you around and all you can do is hang on and gather brief gasps of air as you surface. To let go, would mean that you might be lunch! Who is controlling who??< Not only that, but also the hawks are circling, watching for chickens hatching. It's enough to make me want to prune a tree while trying not to let an iceberg hit me.<vbg> GM

To: Big Bucks who wrote (17603)	3/12/1998 1:12:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

BB, Re:I would like to think that our Fed will take steps to "manage" the situation and prevent this from happening by "lancing" the markets periodically to prevent a massive blow out I agree that if the market continues to march on at this rate, some type of intervention will probably be necessary. However OTOH, its not fair to compare our market/economy to that of Japan a decade ago. Japan had/has an entrenched economic policy that is not conducive to productivity, largely what we hear is driving our current bull run. Japan needs to prune the collusive practices of their cos. that are neither healthy for their businesses or for their consumers. Regards, Brian

To: Big Bucks who wrote (17603)	3/12/1998 2:34:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

"I would like to think that our Fed will take steps to "manage" the situation and prevent this from happening by "lancing" the markets periodically to prevent a massive blow out." Of course, let me first say that projecting 10+ years ahead is mostly for fun, but also to develop a plan based on what could occur. If Alan Greenspan never dies, or retires, we will all be better off. I don't know if he is taking his immortality pills, I expect the next Fed chair cannot possibly give a repeat performance. Yes, I believe in Greenspan, not the institution. Even Greenspan has tried to talk this market down, and very unsuccessfully. If growth stays slow, with inflation near zero, how much will raising rates really effect the performance of the dow and large cap stocks? Stocks, not companies.How much could he justify raising? And if it gets really out of hand, say inflation at 1% with short rates at 7%, the fed could possibly cause a recession.Meanwhile, long rates would probably collapse in this scenario, leading to another burst of equity investing. I see a real possibility of dow and S&P pe's of 35 between now and 2010. E could well climb to 2400 on the dow, giving us a dow of 70,000+. The inevitable collapse will be spectacular, and create a horrific situation with younger boomers. There, I have provided enough material for everyone, in case boredom has set in. Believe me, I am not relying on such developments, but I hope to be around to see what the market behaves like when the boomers start withdrawing money from equities, to spend on retirement.