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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spartex who wrote (20992)	3/12/1998 4:15:00 PM
From: Rich Young	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

I am NOT bullish and I am not particularly bearish at this point, although I hold a slug of March 10 puts. I am skeptical. There are a lot of potential bombs on either side of the game at this point. The lawsuit could force a lot of nastiness out into the open or this supposed Microsoft "partnership" could get blown into a lot of things. Netscape could come out of the woodwork. A pre-announce for Q2 could be dropped. Asia could blow up again. The economy could "overheat". Like Don said, the safest bet might be cash. Or as they said in "War Games": "The only winning move is not to play" Rich

To: Spartex who wrote (20992)	3/12/1998 6:22:00 PM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Hi Quad-K, As much as possible I try to maintain a neutral attitude toward any company I take out a position on. Falling in love or hate screws up the chances of doing the right thing at the right time. The question I find myself asking myself when I have profit on the table is "Would I start a new position at this price under these conditions?" To give you the most honest answer to your question that I know how. The only "real" thing Novell has in it's favor is the possibility of increasing revenue with the release of Moab in around 6 months. Between now and then the "real" news is all bad, decreasing revenue and law suits. The problem is that what's "real" doesn't have anything to do with the price of stock. IMO paying 50% more for a stock than it was a couple months ago in hopes of making more 6 months from now doesn't make sense. It's also gone too random to trade well. The best I can come up with is to give it an "Avoid" rating, and that goes both long and short, puts and calls, short term or long term. There are too many things that could go wrong with any position right now. The price could go flat and options expire worthless. The stock could get hyped and the shorts would get squeezed. The bottom could fall out and the longs would get slammed. My personal opinion is that the price "should" go down. That doesn't mean it "will" go down. That's the long answer. The short answer, considering all available information is: "I don't know". I wouldn't put much confidence in the belief that every trade that goes at ask is a buy and those that go at bid are a sell. It's not trading right for that to be true. Regards, Don Once again, I want to stress that my opinions are not to be taken as investment advise. Sometimes I can get pretty close. Sometimes I can't.