To: Infoseeker who wrote (1847 ) 3/15/1998 11:26:00 PM From: Infoseeker Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 5827
Hello my friends. Thanks to those people who have taken the time to respond to my postings. However - It seems there are few of you who feel pretty threatened by general commentary. As a continuum to the Ballard discussion- In light the heavy discussion around the Ballard issue, I opted to read a book that would enable me to add more "food for thought" on this thread. The book I read is entitled "ITS NOT WHAT STOCKS YOU BUY, IT'S WHEN YOU SELL THAT COUNTS" Written by Donald L. Cassidy - Who by the way is an analyst with Lipper Analytical Services, Inc., and was awarded a cum laude graduate degree from Wharton School of Finance and Commerce at the University of Pennsylvania. In this book, Cassidy discusses the issue which is near and dear to my heart...WHEN TO SELL A STOCK? In a section of his book, "Confronting Reality," he lists some danger signs which are indicative of a point at which a stock should be sold. Here they are: 1. Heavy promotion of the stock by management or agents; 2. Projections of unusually strong/lengthy growth; 3. Use of round numbers for projections (e.g. 50% growth or a $10 billion market); 4. Questioning the motives of reasonable doubters; 5. Strong claims to be the best, unique, in a business; 6. Defining the market narrowly so that, by definition, one is the leader. Heah - Ballard fans - Is there anything about this that sounds familiar? **As Mr. Cassidy states, "Ask dispassionately, whether, in light of today's facts, it is a good idea to buy now?" He adds, "a smart investor [should] ask this key question: If I did not own the stock, with today's knowledge would I be a buyer now? If not, sell the stock. In that regard consider that 1)Ballard is valued at over $3 billion 2) will lose gobs of money for many years 3)has lots of competition and 4) a process that may never become commercial. In addition, today's NY Times article (Sunday, March 15, 1998) "For Cars - What Comes After the Internal Combustion Engine?" By Michelle Krebs. This article states that internal-combustion is seen by the experts as the mainstay for several more decades. The Times article also states that alternative - fuel vehicles are vehicles which "may never be more than concepts. As of now, even the brightest engineers which cannot say of several promising technologies will take the lead." It also states that the involvement by auto makers is "partly as a public-relations move, partly as a result of government pressure, and partly to keep competitors from gaining a technological edge." My comment - Seems like Ballard at current prices is a overblown dream.