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Technology Stocks : OnSale Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StaggerLee who wrote (888)	3/13/1998 2:04:00 AM
From: Mo Chips	Respond to of 4903

<<waiting for someone to propose a realistic P&L whereby ONSL is profitable enough to justify a $500>> I have done it and could repeat it here but I have not the time to explain to a unwavering short.... Besides, I know from your bio that you are a bean counter with no vision which your posts frequently confirm... Mo

To: StaggerLee who wrote (888)	3/13/1998 2:19:00 AM
From: Sowbug	Respond to of 4903

StaggerLee, I don't think we're going to find a common ground here. If you try applying any rational valuation model to most Internet stocks, you'll conclude that they should be trading at a very small fraction of their current value. Take maximum future possible revenue, multiply it by some giant number, figure out a price that gives a P/E of 100, add $50, square it, and these stocks are still probably trading above that price. But we're so close to the beginning of a revolution (I know, sounds cheesy) that neither of us can even comprehend what the next 50 years will bring. I mean, I expect in 2048, when I'm 78 years old, my dog will be surfing the Web, walking himself on a virtual Moon, and I'll be paying ten cents every time he does to some company out there. People haven't even figured out what the Net is for yet -- kind of like how people had no idea what to do with the telephone, the internal combustion engine, the television, or the airplane when they were first invented. So investing in the Internet is like flying blind. But some of us say "danger, don't invest," and others say "opportunity, I'll invest." Moreover, I know some of these companies will fail. I bet there were 100 American car companies in the early 1900s, and now there are three. Same with computers -- remember Cromemco? MITS? Imsai? Sinclair? Wang? Invest in any of those companies and your money would be gone. But if I'd had $25,000 and invested $1,000 each in 25 companies in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and one were Intel and one were Microsoft, and the other 23 went bankrupt, I'd still be a multimillionaire today. I wouldn't care at all about the $23,000 I lost. You might say "yeah, whatever, ok, I agree the Internet is here to stay, but that doesn't mean you have to be a jackass and invest using the shotgun approach." But I emphasize, we haven't yet figured out what the Internet is for. Onsale may turn out to be the stupidest idea ever conceived. So about all one can do is invest in the people running these companies, figure that whatever the Internet turns out to be, these people are most likely to own it, and place your bets on the pass line. From reading your other posts, I think you're playing the don't pass line. My approach defies rational discussion, I know. You may turn out to be using the wiser approach. But I doubt we're going to change each others' minds or agree on much, which leads me to my original reply to you -- best of luck in your investing.