Caution is never stupid...
After all, this stock has NOTHING to do with traditional
valuation methods or fundamentals. All of us who invest
in SEEK, know that, at least on some level.
It isn't the thing we choose to dwell upon.
And, to this point at least, it isn't something the market has
really cared about.
In all honesty, I played a little bit yesterday in SEEK.
For the first time, I might add.
I took some profits from a day-trade. And ALSO established a smaller
position for the long haul. I will be adding to that position,
as I fear there will be a short-term down draft. But, I am notorious
for being a bad short-term trend picker. And remain among the
25 LEAST followed SI posters, for following me would be a case
of the bland leading the bland.
In the absence of solid news--and given a certain jitteriness
that I have felt not just in this stock but in the market as a whole--
I'm being very, very careful.
However, I must point out that one such short-minded poster
here was also the same guy who said he made money after shorting upon
my **RUMOR**. And we all know that that day's action didn't make
him any money. So, he wasn't exactly playing straight with us.
From a technology and social trend and new business paradigm
perspective, SEEK scores high on all points. And it remains at the
top of my list because of certain smart moves... some of which,
I am convinced, are yet to be revealed.
Mr. West, if you catch any flames, I assure you it won't be
from this quarter. And we are all on various tracks regarding
this stock. But, if your primary view is LONG, which will be
my stance--because I lack the good stomach and quick nerve to
be a fine day trader--you will profit in SEEK. Not today, I
fear. Nor, necessarily, next week, unless news is forthcoming. But, you
WILL profit.
* SEEK will show positive earnings by Q4 at the
very latest. It's accelerating with greater page views, more
eyeballs, new deals (somebody on the Yahoo thread noted there's
a "new" Disney icon on SEEK's homepage: looks new to me), and
other positive developments.
* It's got a war chest to smooth out any bumps in
the near term. (Money that can buy them a place at the Netscape
table, should they need to go there.)
* And, at the risk of being horribly redundant,
I will repeat a little-known and little-appreciated fact. SEEK
is now and will continue to be in the revenue-sharing game... which
means it participates in transactions that it facilitates. This
is a huge wild-card when it comes to projecting revenues and
earnings. XCIT's CEO, for one, has estimated that in the near
future XCIT will be generating $3 from transactions for every
$1 in standard advertising banner sales. This is AN AWESOME
thought. And it applies in Infoseekistan, one of my favorite
countries.
* And as to the bio-technology comparison, I just
couldn't disagree more. There are NUMEROUS obstacles in the
face of biotech companies, from the costs of R & D, to research
"guesses" that don't pan out, to an arcane and frustrating FDA
approval process (even with expedited NDA), to some hugely
overblown promises, etc. And, while
in a speculative fervor, a lot of these facts were initially
ignored, the chickens came home to roost. But, unless you're
somewhat atavistic or a Luddite on a tear or are just looking
for excuses to bash this or that stock, internet and internet
advertising IS HERE TO STAY. It will become even more refined
in the near future with more detailed clickstream analysis, customer profiling,
cookies (a privacy issue), and a focus on DIRECT MARKETING.
Further, SEEK and others will continue to evolve. My clients
are gaining greater confidence with the internet as a medium for
delivering their messages. Factor in, wonderful stuff from
companies like ITVU and WAVO and others, and you've got a remarkable
set of tools to deliver mulitimedia messages, as well.
Obviously, this is just one man's opinion. A very
long-winded opinion. But, I felt like getting a few points across.
Thanks for your indulgence.
And, as always, best regards to those who truly
SEEK,
c m
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