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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jjs_ynot who wrote (128)	3/13/1998 10:25:00 PM
From: Ally	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 2578

Hi Dave, Ah... sweet weekend, more time to attend to the portfolio. >> I think both stochastic and MACD indicate a downtrend in DELL. Unfortunately, the toolset I use still isn't corrected for the stock split so I am extrapolating from my previous TA. >> My charting software does automatic splitting. Can confirm that MACD (using 12 26 9) cutting down the slower one decisively. Other indicators: Stochastics, On Balance Volume, Gann's Angle, Relative Strength, 10-day Momentum are all supporting the direction of the price weakening. It's seldom that I see all the TA indicators in sync all at one time. Seems to forecast more price erosion in the short term. Price has fallen below the 30 day moving average. The 100 day average is $52.50. I doubt if it will fall below this without another negative announcement. Today's volume is well below the 30 average volume. Decreasing volume happens on a quiet price erosion scenario. >>I think a good entry point for long may become available in the first two weeks of April in the mid-50s>>. May depend on whether there is an earnings warning in April. When Compaq released the earnings warning, Dell said so far it has not seen a down turn in its market. However, should it subsequently see a softening in sales, I think it will have to pre-announce in April before the release of 1st quarter in May. Slower growth is especially a problem for a company such as Dell whose shareholders are so used to record earnings quarter after quarter. Imagine if earnings indeed do slow down for Dell..... shareholders may get disillusioned and take it out on the stock price... then it could easily drop well below the 100 day average. >>Discussing the downside of DELL seems to make one a pariah on SI, so be warned. There are a lot of zealous supporters.>> I know. That's why I have to thank you for taking the initiative and courage to start this bear thread. It gives people who view the stock price as too heady a forum to exchange views and perspective without being harangued by devotees. It always amuses me to see participants in stock forums intolerant of opposite views from theirs. D.