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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (4098)	3/13/1998 9:29:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

I2: Truman has got it right IMHO. Brinker has been discussing intermediate sell signals at least since Summer of 1997 as I recall. They are rare events and are the most difficult to pinpoint. Why look at the last correction which approached 11% I believe by some measure. S & P perhaps? But it did not last for any length of time. Nevertheless, it does not sound like an exact science. Brinker has said that a bear market is almost always preceded by an intermediate term correction of 10 to 20% which could last over several months. Bear could go for 6 to 24 months. As a result, even though the model he may be using may only forecast an intermediate term correction, I believe Brinker said that he is of the general position that if he got an intermediate sell signal, he would go defensive at least in large measure if not totally reduce his equity weighting down zero becasue of the bear risk. He would hold cash possibly in combination with bond fund depending on the forecasted reason for the market decline.