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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jason W. France who wrote (134)	3/14/1998 12:25:00 AM
From: China Trader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2578

Jason, Long Term is too far away... So I will only respond to short term. 1. I believe there is an imminent price correction for the computer industry stocks, and for that matter, for the US stock market in general, due to primarily earnings shortfalls, and also to inflation fears and interest rate hike projections in 98's 2nd half. And this will affect Dell's stock price. And I don't buy arguments that Dell can go up while the general market goes down. 2. I believe the pricing structure in the near term PC market will affect all PC makers, including Dell. As you may have read my previous post on Dell, I alluded to my son's choice of Dell over CPQ for his school work, and that decision was based 90% on price. So, when PC companies like IBM and CPQ reduce prices, that will squeeze Dell's margins. And I don't buy that argument that Dell compete on different markets, as all customers today can buy from all vendors. 3. I read into statements made by Dell that contain words of ambiguity, that in a corporate world, it means there are uncertainties. And these terms are made up by lawyers who position themselves not to get sued in case there is a downfall. I can be proven wrong in 60 days, but I think Dell's spokesmen already set up the analysts for a revised forecast. I believe the general public don't understand that there is a strong likelihood that Dell will fall short of First Call's earnings consensus of 83 cents. And when that becomes real, this will pull Dell's share price to the 40-50 dollars range. And in a nutshell, those were the reasons I dare to be bears to Dell, such a great company who is now rubbing shoulders with MSFT, INTC, LU, CSCO. hui