Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: feargreed who wrote (21750)	3/14/1998 9:10:00 AM
From: Jason W. France	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

Feargreed. your comments still reak of emotion and not much logic. I will answer your question directly NO!!!! I do not think that CPQ is a good value for three very simple reasons 1) They are fundmentally disadvantged with a business model that was created ten years ago and has not changed. until they shed the resellers channel they will never get to the direct marketers effeceincy and thus continue to lose market share to them 2) They have bitten off way more than they can chew and do not have the mgmt bandwidth to deliver on ODM promises, integrate tandem, digest DEC, and fend off the threat from direct mktrs. This lack of mgmt bandwidth has already lead to very questionable decisions. (stuffing the channel with MMX in Q4 for example) that fancy bit of footwork, from CPQ mgmt will help support the lofty goal of ZERO profit in Q1 for all you loyal CPQ shareholders, enjoy!!! 3) According to IDC, dell is now the number two provider of servers to corp america and I think I heard their CFO state on their analysts conf call that their server business is growing at like 200%/year. why don't you play with a few proforma CPQ income statements and imagine a world where either the margins on their server business are cut in half or their share in that mkt is cut in half. As CPQ derives arounf 60% of their profits from the server mkt this would be a very painful thing for CPQ and their shareholders skip the emotion dude and post some logic. Yes CPQ is a OK company with very mediocre mgmt and a GREAT brand name (perhaps the best brand) But brand alone will not suffice over the long term, and the picture for CPQ is ugly and gets uglier each and every day sell now, take your profits, and rest easy Jason

To: feargreed who wrote (21750)	3/14/1998 11:18:00 AM
From: ed	Respond to of 97611

Fear ? Greed, You are so right! CPQ is still CPQ, nothing has been changed except the stock price. It is just human nature, when things are bad, people just bad mouth on it, but do not look at the big picture. On this thread, people said CPQ will be dead money for the next six month, but if you look at the chart, it has been that way since last September, I do not think this price can stay there for too long. The way is up. Someone on this thread thought it is the end of the PC industry, and CPQ is not going to grow, and we are not going to sell any PCs. However, if you compare to the Auto industry, those big three are still growing, the price of new models just keep going up every year. The average buyer of new cars will hold their new cars for about five years, and many people buy used cars, but the auto industry is still growing, and the average life of a car is somewhere around 8 to 10 years. So, if the the AUTO industry can grow, then why not the PC ? As I mentioned, If you look at the chart of CPQ , you will see every year this time , the stock price pull back, and top in Sep / Oct. There is no exception for this year. I think this phenomina probably due to the traditional slowdown of 1Q of every year after the hot New Year and Christmas seasons. Of course, there were always people backmouth every year this time when the stock droped. I think, logical thinking, CPQ will start to bounce back starting in April, especially when the DEC merger is closed, and the scheduled release of WIN98. We will see big years in 1998, 1999 ...etc when many big events will happen . As to the inventory, it really no big deal, we realize that Radio will start to distribute CPQ's computer starting in one month, if you think it this way that with with 6000 +/- stores around the USA, how many computers per month it can digest the inventory? I do not see this a problem, but a way for CPQ to boost the market shares. It will not be surprised to me if CPQ's share of the market next year is increased to 25%. As to the merger with DEC, this will help CPQ in the high end enterprise market. CPQ is not a big player in the enterprise market, with DEC, CPQ will eat HP and IBM's exterprise market shares, and will have nothing to loose in this market, that is why HWP is frighten to death, so is SUNW. But, unfortunately, I have heard someone badmouth on this merger. When the Analysts downgrade the very solid companies, it is time to buy . When the Analysts started to upgrade the company, it is time to sell. People need to think reversly with the analysts. Because the investors and the analysts are never on the same side. The analysts' bonus is comming from your pocket.

To: feargreed who wrote (21750)	3/14/1998 5:36:00 PM
From: Dulane U. Ponder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

Hi feargreed -- welcome to cpq thread. You know, it might be very soon now that computers and washing machines are clumped together in the same commondity category. That's why the Dec merger makes sense to me -- expertise and technical know-how will never be commoditized. The high-end products of technology will always be in demand and will command high margins; the best companies will be able to produce the cutting-edge proprietary products that business and industry will demand in the coming years. Without Dec, cpq is just an appliance manufacturer, in my opionion. dp