To: Steve Morytko who wrote (2553 ) 3/14/1998 1:16:00 PM From: jim detwiler Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13953
For the Web-based e-tailers, we look for large market opportunities where significant shifts to the Web are likely, such as travel and stock brokerage. The challenge is for companies to build enough of a brand and service quotient to maintain price. E*trade, Onsale, and Preview appear to have the right characteristics for success. For E*Trade, revenues per customer are already high, leaving the challenge of building a larger customer base, which we believe will be achieved through superior content. For Onsale, it has attracted a big audience and it needs more of a supply of goods to auction. Preview's audience of vacation seekers is one of the largest e-tail databases on the Web, with the help AOL distribution. We expect its improved site will entice higher revenues per customer over time. We remained challenged to appreciate the value of the lower-margin e-tailers, like Amazon and the music sellers. We favor Amazon, because of the high levels of loyalty, if not love that we hear expressed for the brand, which may insulate it from competitive forces to some degree. Of course, this all sounds rational in theory, but how does it help us figure out when to buy and sell these stocks during wild swings in prices? Well, given the lack of liquidity in most of the stocks, we believe the best strategy remains buying a basket of these stocks, selling a bit on spikes, but tending to buy more on dips. We remain convinced that our model assumptions are conservative, allowing higher EPS after another year or two of investment spending, yielding stock prices that can continue to outperform technology stock averages. We will continue to test our assumptions. If audience growth stalled and advertising budgets dried up and e-tailing response rates fall, we might be forced to lower price targets, but we view this as unlikely, given the overwhelming amount of current evidence. We also don't want to fight the tape. Our positive inclinations for these stocks must be shared by new buyers, which seem to be focused on these stocks. Catalysts, such as reports of March quarter results should continue to help these stocks move forward and upward, in our view.