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To: Patrick Koehler who wrote (30180)	3/14/1998 1:43:00 PM
From: DJBEINO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Some OEMs Selling Excess DRAM Inventory techweb.com Appleton to address Asian DRAM buildup at WSC techweb.com An end to the DRAM glut in '98? Who knows? techweb.com

To: Patrick Koehler who wrote (30180)	3/14/1998 3:28:00 PM
From: John Graybill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

oops! I stand corrected. All the points in my msg remain though -- it looks like Big Money with inside information making a big play. I should have thought of this earlier, but there is a difference between this transaction (whatever it is) and the ones before. The Dec/Jan scams were out of the money by at least a strike price, which made them dirt cheap. But this one much closer to being at the money. I see three possibilities, assuming this was a trade by itself, not the second half of a spread or something like that. We also should assume that this person knows what they are doing, because of the money on the table. 1) Somebody not holding the stock bought a lot of calls. He makes money only if the stock goes up to 36 or so. Bullish. 2) Somebody holding the stock wrote some covered calls. He would have gotten like $1.50 or something like that at the time? He's about even now that the stock has dropped since he sold them. So much for hedging; he should have sold 32 1/2's if he thought it was going down. He must think it's not going below 33, or we will see a quick roll of exactly that type on Monday. Bullish to neutral! 3) Somebody wrote naked calls. Wow! Gain $1.50 if it closes below 35 on Friday, give that back and $1-2 more if it goes to 37 or so on an "earnings surprise"? Nah I just don't think that's a good risk/reward! If he thought it was going down big-time, he'd pull the Goldman stunt and buy some dirt-cheap 32 1/2 puts. This one just does not compute! Well, there are a couple of other long-shots: an insider who sees no risk whatsoever in MU being above 35 on Friday, or some maniac who doesn't know what he's doing.