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Technology Stocks : Check Point Software (CHKP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ED PLOPA who wrote (1790)	3/14/1998 8:45:00 PM
From: Larry Abrams	Respond to of 7150

Competitors to CHKPF: Microsoft See the following article in ZD Internet Magazine on the firewall market and the impact on price that Microsoft's entry is having: zdnet.com

To: ED PLOPA who wrote (1790)	3/15/1998 3:57:00 AM
From: Danny Chan	Respond to of 7150

Thanks for the response. CHKPF option indeed carries rich premium. I have been kept writing covered calls on half of my position since last Dec. For a 35-40 trading range, I would write 1-2 month 40 calls once it move above 40 and buy them back as it moves to 35. If price fall further to close to 30, buy on margin. So far there was only one chance back in Jan. But of course, this strategy applies when the price move only based on speculation rather than facts. And something important is that placing stop on the stock will be really screwed, so writing option is best way to protect against those unjustified moves. I don't think it will be a smart move for CSCO to get a hand into this. After all, they are not MSFT yet! I remember someone posted in the tread a while ago comparing CHKPF's revenue growth with other companies in the same business and CHKPF is indeed standing out. NETA has just got himself out of the pond. Wouldn't it be joke for people to sell it at 40s last Dec. CHKPF doesn't even have a earning warning like NETA did last fall. About the tax rate, I checked a few Israeli companies traded here and they all seem to carry lower rate to comparable us companies. I think the street estimate has already account for the tax rate as for the stock price too. I'm estimating 98 and 99 earnings based on 36% rate which is quite conservative (same as comparable sw company like CTXS). A rate lower than that will provide significant upside.

To: ED PLOPA who wrote (1790)	3/16/1998 10:22:00 AM
From: AugustWest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7150

Ed, and all, would anyone here like to work on this with us? Message 3722728 We currently have CHKPF in a portfolio where we started with 1,000 fictitious dollars for each pick. We will be tracking these for performance, And would greatly appreciate any input in this regard. You can find the portfolio link inside the link I'm sending. Thanks, August West.

To: ED PLOPA who wrote (1790)	3/16/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: BOGEY MAN	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7150

Long time no here, have you had a chance to look at ORBKF, and if you did what did you think about it. Got another one for you to look at and this is hot of the press, CIEN this baby just got upgraded today. P.S what happened to MRVC BOGEY MAN OUT

To: ED PLOPA who wrote (1790)	3/17/1998 8:52:00 AM
From: Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7150

Off Topic: Ed, Jay, and others: I'm feel this is important enough to break silence and open it up some things for general discussion. I feel it is now time to GET OUT OF THE MARKET and CHKPF by extension. Why? - Bob Bennett, "I've really got to get to this conference call." - Bill Clinton, "Yeah, I've got to get back to Iraq." The man, and by extension, the executive branch is paralysed. - Duda Grapefruit, who exports 50% of their product to the far east, has seen a drop of 20% of their exports to Japan. So? Well, if domestic stocks do about 40% aggregate in exports, and if Asia will lower their imports, then domestic stocks will have lower growth, which, will be reflected in earnings. - This has already been stated by MOT, Intel, now Micron, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that earnings on balance will either remain neutral and/or decline. - Buffet's comments, if people would read what he said instead of the summary's they would know that, "Stocks are appropriately valued if earnings continue to grow." Where is the growth? GNP has already been revised downward. Earnings will NOT grow, hence prices will decline. - Oil Prices are collapsing, short term great, this means low inflation. WRONG. This means disinflation. I follow the tenets of Ludwig Von Mises. "You don't have to see an index when you go to the grocery store." A seller of product forced to reduce his price, creates a situation where his competition must lower their price. This continues until margins get reduced to zero and companies go under (refer to 1929 to 1933). Interest rates don't rise, they decline, but still nobody takes the money. Again, if you read Buffett, he's positioning himself for a disinflationary cycle. - Exit CHKPF, the story has changed with this stock because of NETA. All this means GET OUT NOW! What to do? - Short what you have. - Purchase puts. - or at a minimum reduce your holdings. This market is poised for a major correction, if not a crash. Arguments against this: + Momentum is up, don't fight the tape. Answer: - Look at the volume, only fools are buying now, the smart money is out (refer to Value Line + Stoval). + Technically we could see DOW 9500 - Fundamentals say PE is out of site. One other factor: CHKPF may be a takeover target, so on a micro basis, you still may want to hold the stock. Lets begin to discuss this.