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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Earl who wrote (21122)	3/15/1998 4:43:00 PM
From: Terry Maynard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

What about IBM's move to NT. That would be a more likely candidate for their small business solution than OS2. OS2 as a commercial product has been dead for many years thanks to NT. Why would anyone want OS2 now? It will be NT or NW5 or both. NW6 is a smart move IMO by Novell. It is part of the new Novell business model - introduce a new product of beta each month. NW6 is 'freezing the market' just like the co from Redmond does. Novell is leading instead of reacting - again, IMO. Good Investing. Terry

To: Don Earl who wrote (21122)	3/15/1998 10:59:00 PM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Take it from me Don (ask Quad-K if I would be considered qualified to provide you an answer), most in the Computer industry know OS/2 will die a slow death (and painful for IBM if they hold on to it until the bitter end). I can't even think of one client that has recently decided to implement OS/2 Warp or Warp Connect for Application and File/Print services. In fact, we have two clients currently that are migrating away from OS/2 LAN Server (the older version of Warp Connect) to NT and NetWare. Industry Analysts will also tell you that OS/2's future looks bleak. Sorry Don, OS/2 will not be filling in any vacuum. OS/2's window of opportunity has closed long time ago. I challenge you to find one industry analyst or I.T. person you know who would say that OS/2 will make a come-back or even hold on to its current marketshare. In fact, I challenge you to find an IBMer that will tell you with a straight face that OS/2 will be a player in the industry. Don't get me wrong Don, IBM has been putting out some great E-Commerce , internet, and mission critical/scaleable software. In fact, I would feel safe in saying that IBM has likely the most robust and mature end-to-end N-Tier client/server solutions in the industry. Its growth potential is great (the commercials are actually quite effective in promoting this software). This software runs not only on OS/2 Warp, but AIX, NetWare, NT, OS/390, MVS, and VM. Unfortunately for OS/2, IBM is developing their new revisions on NT first then the other platforms. If OS/2 was so strategic for IBM, why would they not use their clout to push OS/2 by developing their software on OS/2 first? Because it is not strategic to them, thats why (IMO). The growth you noticed in their networking products did not include OS/2 Warp Connect. This growth is coming from their networking hardware which is experiencing super growth (i.e. Switches, Routers, ATM equipment, etc.). I would dispute that there is a vacuum between NT and NetWare. Other platforms have also filled this aparent void you see - the various flavours of UNIX to be exact. I agree that IBM hasn't take a good opportunity to acquire Novell while stock prices were low. Who knows if they may not have already approached Novell but the deal was not ready. I don't see why this merger would be stopped by anti-trust laws but you may be right. As for Novell giving up the low end businesses, I don't think they have (IntranetWare for Small Business) but I agree that if there is one area that NT can and does easily sell to, its the small business. Novell is not gaining as much marketshare as NT. Sorry Don, I just don't see the gloom and doom for Novell that you see. Novell may not be grabbing as much current sales as NT, but, these sales are coming from a general growth in number of units in the industry. As an analyst said, Novell is getting a smaller percentage of a growing pie. NT is not gaining sales from those converting from NetWare. These sales are mostly either net new sales or sales at the expense of Banyan or OS/2 LAN Server. Your right, Novell will be a player, but I believe a bigger player than you feel they will be. To Carlos: You are right in that the NT Clonies are a factor in the industry. Unfortunately, some I.T. shop Directors and CIOs select strategies and products simply based on industry trade rags. That is unfortunate for their companies who will pay for these decisions. The pain is not only going to be felt by the Computer Departments, but, by the entire company that relies on this technology. But, I simply do not agree with you that Microsoft has wooed every player in the industry. I just know its not true. If you are in the computer industry then I just can't believe you believe that either. Most large corporations simply don't make these decisions lightly. Microsft can only freeze the market so much. As companies try to push NT and BackOffice into larger scope and more mission critical business functions, the pains that these companies will experienced will effect the business. These painful experiences are already going out in the industry press. Its a known fact in the industry that NT is not an enterprise solution and has a very high TCO. NT5 reviews have already indicated that these Enterprise short-comings and TCO cost reductions will not be fully addressed and are slipping in release dates. Finally, Don mentioned that Novell has a lot of axes over its head that have not yet fallen. Well I would say if any company has axes over its head its Microsoft. Start counting: the numerous high profile anti-trust litigations piling up against Microsoft monthly, their products not being up to snuff for enterprise solutions, their new products slipping further back on delivery dates, and Microsoft considered to be a Bully in the industry and the other industry players ganging up on Microsoft. The industry press might have been portraying Microsoft as the industry darling, but this same industry press is turning on Microsoft like a pack of hungry wolves as they smell the scent of blood - and the scent is in the air. Let me conclude by asking you a simple question, in the early 80's when IBM dominated the Computer world including the PC industry, would you ever have guessed that any other company would ever become more dominant then IBM? A lot of people said the EXACT THING you stated in your recent posting - "You can't go wrong buying IBM". Where are those IBM Clonies now? In 3-5 years, we may be likely saying the same thing about Microsoft. NEVER SAY NEVER! ToySoldier PS - (Sorry Quad - I waited for your response before writing this response but you never posted today)