To: Steve Hepensteil who wrote (50238 ) 3/16/1998 8:48:00 PM From: stock bull Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 58324
Steve, 1Q98 revenue will be flat with 1Q97 revenue. Yet, IOM is going to lose between $10 and $25 million for the current quarter, and cash flow will be negative. Also, the channels are stuffed with product, and IOM's accounting rules require that they not claim sales on any inventory in the channel that's over 30 days. What does all this mean? IMO, it means the following: 1) Internal spending is now out of control and/or, the margins have gone to hell. 2) Over spending in plant expansion, hiring, advertisements and the unsold inventory has resulted in negative cash flow. This is one of the worst things that can happen to a company. Negative cash flow is really bad news. 3) Its now very clear that all the advertisements have failed to produce any improvement in sales...what till IOM and the analysts have their conference call. The analysts will tear KE butt off. Of course, this will be accomplished in a very polite manner. 4) The stock will now drift down and probably traded in the 5 1/2 to 6 1/2 dollar range till the "cows come home." The stock won't appreciate till the company demonstrates growth and profit over 2 to 4 quarters. 5) To make things worse, the PC market seems to have soften more than expected. Look at the warnings from Compaq, Intel, Motorola, National Semi, etc. This will negatively impact IOM. 6) Expect downgrades to show up within the week. Another plus for IOM. I could go on and on. I don't see any future for IOM's stock until the Board of Directors hires a management team that knows what its doing. As someone once said...its not the technology that counts, its the stock price that counts. When one factors in the time value of money, its becomes very clear that IOM is a very bad investment. Just my thoughts...for those that want to flame me, I welcome your spears and arrows. Stock Bull