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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jason W. France who wrote (184)	3/16/1998 5:32:00 PM
From: Marq Spencer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2578

People here seem to think that "high-end" systems are pricey. You can buy a CPQ 300MHz PII, w/ DVD, 8GB HD and 64MB Ram for $1550 today (no monitor)! That is high enough for any kid, let alone a business :-). BTW, just want to point out that most businesses are not buying the 300MHz systems. They have realized that the systems for $1200 (including monitor) are perfectly fine for the tens of millions of corporate users (read Word, Mail, Excel, Web browsing, client/server business apps). - Brian.

To: Jason W. France who wrote (184)	3/16/1998 5:34:00 PM
From: jjs_ynot	Respond to of 2578

>>> Dell has stated publically many times that they are running about 10% consumer I was trying to get a handle if that was 10% of overall sales but perhaps 30-40 percent of PC sales to consumers and essentially 0% of servers and network hardware to consumers (i.e. how this spread over product lines particularly how sensitive DELL is to pricing pressure in the consumer PC market). Dave

To: Jason W. France who wrote (184)	3/16/1998 5:38:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2578

You can go at it backwards from dell's share against cpq, since cpq does break out numbers. If we use my IDC number of 5.8% for Dell and 35% for CPQ we get 1/6 the share. Using these numbers, CPQ's 35% represented about $9B in sales, so Dell's 5.8 would be about 1.5B which I think is too low. However, your IDC number for Dell of 18% share (which I think was just for 3rd quarter 97, but may be an indication of future share) would put them at $4.5B in server sales, which I think is too high (this would put server percentage of sales higher than CPQ's, which seems unreasonable given their relatively recent entry into that business). If we split the difference we get $3B. My suspicion is that current annualized run rate might be something like $3B with server growth about 3 times Dell overall growth rate. this is just a back of the envelope swag...