To: Robert H. who wrote (30481 ) 3/17/1998 9:42:00 AM From: DJBEINO Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 53903
"MU holds an analyst meeting 3/18-19" Headline: Micron Technology: Reporting FY2Q98 EPS Post Close 3/16; Expect $-0.27 (lehman 03/16/98 ) EPS DUE TONIGHT; OUR RECENT FY98 PROJECTIONS (BELOW CONSENSUS) FINE-TUNED LOWER. Our model excludes a $150 mil. 1-time pretax gain by MU's 64% PC subsidiary Micron Electronics and also excludes a restructuring charge by Micron Electronics (i.e. includes only the anticipated operating loss by Micron Electronics). Because DRAM prices began to fade late in the quarter and in particular to better allow for a significant operating loss by PC subsidiary Micron Electronics, we now project Feb. FY2Q98 EPS at $-0.27 (old: $-0.24), FY98 at $-0.63 (old: $-0.50), FY99 at $0.30 (old: $0.40) and continue to project FY00 at $1.65. Our Feb. FY2Q98 model includes 12% bit growth vs. FY1Q98 and 4 Mbit DRAM ASPs at $3.05. CAUTIOUS NEAR TERM OUTLOOK. The chip business experienced a seasonal orders recovery in February, and the deceleration in chip unit volumes under way since last July should stabilize soon. These are certainly positive factors, but the big drivers for the industry in 1998 (low priced PCs, DVD, digital broadcasting, digital cable) will not emerge in force until late this year. In the interim, a normal summer slowdown is likely. With regard to the DRAM market specifically, the cutbacks in world chip capital spending will not likely have a real impact on supply until late 1998 or early 1999. We continue to expect a very dramatic upturn in MU's EPS as pricing firms, but the timing of that upturn still seems 6-12 months away. In the interim, the stock appears at risk as optimistic consensus projections are reduced. MU holds an analyst meeting 3/18-19 . MU seems likely to focus on short term difficulties balanced by its long term favorable position among the world's lowest cost DRAM makers.