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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Brophy who wrote (1204)	3/17/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: Air JJ	Respond to of 5944

Is the buyback program still on, or was it cancelled after the acquisition announcement? Thanks.

To: Mark Brophy who wrote (1204)	3/17/1998 12:03:00 PM
From: Ahmad Ascha	Respond to of 5944

I certainly distrust the management.With what they did early this year and throughout last year is clear indicator that they are out to enrich themselves by any means, legally or illegally. I bought the stock at the time when they were dumping it big-time, while making announcements on how strong the company is. This management is nothing to be proud of, and the barrage of class action law suits is you biggest evidence. I feel sorry for all the people who got trapped the same way I was. Good luck Ahmad

To: Mark Brophy who wrote (1204)	3/17/1998 5:52:00 PM
From: Mark	Respond to of 5944

Mark, Mark has made a persuasive case that the price will rise to 40-43 in 12-18 months, Errrr, I don't think I have ! I am not saying it won't, but in order for it to do so, four or five fundamental things all have to happen. That's a lot ! If you want to play the optimism bit, I can give you an upside scenario that suggests it could be a lot higher ! e.g. Historically, ADPT has grown revenues by 44% per annum. The '98 numbers are likely to be lower than the trend (sans Symbios), but the Symbios acquisition plus some growth would put them straight back on target. In other words, they could complete '99 with revenues of $2Bn+. Assuming all the other ratios stay the same then that suggests $50+ for <18months. But if you want to play the pessimist, there is a very simple scenario which hurts big time - i.e. Intel moves into the SCSI market. Strategically this is something that would make a lot of sense for Intel and would hurt ADPT big time (though not fatally). In the last few years, Intel has had a real problem with filling its slightly older fabs (the high margin CPUs are all made in the latest fabs). Intel has progressively developed companion devices to fill its excess (older) capacity - core logic, networking, graphics...... The only thing that it has to buy in before it can make the whole motherboard is memory and specialist I/O. Imagine what would happen to ADPT if INTC were to design SCSI into the core logic ? If Intel were to make this move, it would be a double-edged sword. First, sales would be lost to those systems no longer requiring plug in controllers (not necessarily the high end of the market, but painfull nonetheless). Second, SCSI periphals would proliferate which would increase sales of the drive controllers. So, perhaps a more frightening thought is if Intel designs FireWire into the core logic as a high-performance disk interface........ The bottom line here is that there is presently a lot of uncertainty about ADPT in the short term, and until this is resolved, nobody is going to consider the current price a bargain. There is a LOT of positives in the Symbios acquisition, and a lot of potential problems. The situation is not helped by the lack of currently accurate info about Symbios...... In the short term we need to understand - Can ADPT raise the cash it needs to manage the integration ? Will there be any stock dilution in the refinancing ? Strategically, where does the new, bigger, ADPT see itself going ? Is there any merit to the current stockholder lawsuits ? Answer these questions satisfactorily, and the price will start climbing again. I suspect we won't have any clear answers for 2-3 months. That's more than enough time for another market correction and a better priced entry point. Mark