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To: Mark Bracey who wrote (101)	3/18/1998 2:01:00 AM
From: SMALL FRY	Respond to of 134

Mark, Thanks! SF

To: Mark Bracey who wrote (101)	3/18/1998 11:28:00 AM
From: Smilodon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 134

Great post Mark. Info like that justifies the time I spend on SI. Your comments about the inconsistent revenue stream match what I have heard from APMC. The company told me that their quarter is always very back end loaded. In Q4 they were two months into it and still did not have a read on how the Asia crisis would affect them. As far a WIND, they certainly are the premier player in the market. The problem with them is the valuation. They did $28 mil in sales last quarter, which gives them an annual run rate of about $112 mil. They have a market cap of around a billion with about $50 mil in net cash. Netting it all out, they are trading at about 8x sales. If WIND can maintain its excellent growth rate, you can make a good return at even that valuation. However, if they ever come in short of estimates, you will lose 30-40% of your money in one day. That is the risk/reward tradeoff we must all evaluate. APMC did about $9.5 mil in revenue last quarter, giving it a run rate of $38 mil. Its current market cap is $46 mil with around $13 mil in net cash. The result is that you pay $33 mil for the business or a little less than 1x sales. At this stage, I am betting that eventually Japan will again start buying and boost APMC's sales and profits and they could even get a multiple expansion. If you get a sales boost to $12 mil per qtr with a 2x multiple, you get a stock price of around $15-16 or about 2.3x your investment. If sales stay flat, the company probably trades in the $5-6 range. If sales decline, I don't think they company trades below it's cash per share of about $2. (Historically, the company has traded from $24-4). So, my questions to you are to handicap this race. In your opinion, what are the odds that APMC gets its Japan business going again and continues with its progress in other markets, and grows sales by about 25%? What are the odds they continue to tread water and don't grow. What are the odds they actually decline in sales? Other questions. What do you think of the prospects of Windows CE and APMC's product initiatives in this area? And, MSFT is also talking about an RTOS. Would the MSFT name be a threat to WIND? I know you can't be certain on any of this. But shoot from the hip and give me your gut reaction. Thanks in advance.

To: Mark Bracey who wrote (101)	3/28/1998 8:40:00 PM
From: Bellvie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 134

Mark, how or does an emulator/CodeTest relate to the recent reporting of a bug in Microsoft's Office98 Mac Edition which can bring down the entire MacOS? crn.com If it does relate... wondering if MSFT or AAPL uses APMC -CodeTest ? If there is an industry score card for efficiency, where does APMC rank. Also, when there is a serious problem, does it ripple back to the embedded mfg.? Thanks for giving us more understanding of an area which is rather obscure. Do notice the increased volume trading of last few days. -Bell