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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (30633)	3/18/1998 7:53:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53903

SB: TK might well have entitled his piece "Kurlak Does SI Bears". As you noted, the "forever bears" have understood and commented upon the deteriorating PC-semi situation for many months. In my case, I've been watching this deterioration for close to two years in plodding around the industry. With respect to TK's current perspective, I couldn't have put it better than you did in your post, but in my case, I believe his "slow recognition" had a lot more to do with extracting heavily exposed clients than with a lack of understanding. Before leaving TK, I'll go on record as noting that he is wrong about the remaining growth in the telecommunications sector. These guys have been building multiple layers of infrastructure here in N. America, and once again, it is a case of over-building, and over-investment. There is plenty of price pressure in virtually every sector. An additional problem is that they have ramped up for massive telecommunication projects in Asia, which are not going to happen as quickly (if at all for a year or two) as was expected. Among a welter of good examples of problems within the telecommunications sector is MOT (see earlier comments on Irridium's lack of sales). Still, a brokerage house needs to have something to sell. He'll come around as it becomes more obvious. The events of the last few days will probably prove a bit of a watershed. As noted earlier, earnings in the PC-semi sector are now coming up dandelions. The market is starting to recognize that this ominous earnings trend is based on diverging supply/demand curves that have exited the charts at opposite ends. Since the tech sector has been this market's main driving force, as it falls, it will take the market with it. The stunning amount of liquidity being added to the markets by the Fed, the Japanese, the stock buy-backs, the mergers and acquisitions, and dumb retail investors, has been successfully absorbed by the market, and it takes an ever increasing supply of dough to keep the balloon in the air. This market is finally about to crack. Best, Earlie

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (30633)	3/18/1998 10:34:00 AM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Skeeter Do you think "they" are going to give Mar 30 and Mar 35 put holders the "money" ? If the day ended right here, I would have to give MU that BOOM BOOM BOOM !!! All those "nice people" getting to talk to Mr. Micron today ! Could the upgrades and/or down grades be out later today ??? Larry Dudash PS: I am flat and just waiting.

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (30633)	3/18/1998 10:50:00 AM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Current MU rating ! One BOOM ! Larry Dudash

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (30633)	3/18/1998 10:55:00 AM
From: rob	Respond to of 53903

64Mb dram ASPs will be in $8 range be Fall. Look at this comment from techweb.com: Bargain Basement Analysts predict that average desktop and PC server prices will fall at least 15% this year. By fall, corporate users should expect to see a desktop machine with a 233-MHz Pentium II chip, 3 Gbytes of storage, and up to 64 Mbytes of memory for less than $850, predicts Dataquest analyst Bill Schaub. Dataquest is revising its 1998 PC forecasts to account for the falling prices; its preliminary results indicate that while U.S. sales of business desktops will grow 15% this year to about 18 million units, revenue will be flat at $33 billion. It would be the first time since the mid-1980s that PC revenues didn't grow. Using the standard 10% rule... 64MB of memory will go for $85 this implies a chip ASP around $8. Cost for MU for 64Mb will be around this number. This is a 60% from current prices. I feel 16Mb will hover at $2.50-$2.00 and stay till it goes out of production. This is the lowest any one can afford to sell it at. This is also why MU stated in there conference call that they are ramping 64Mb about a quarter early... JUNE-JULY time frame. RP