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To: Chris who wrote (7074)3/18/1998 12:42:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42787
 
1) let profits run.. as long as no sell signal triggered, stay in. ie: dell, mer

2) cut losses quickly : should have exitied sooner with my tech loser

dont these two SOMETIMES oppose each other

in that you are staying in because of no sell signal but the stock dumps?

uhh cant express what i mean...i dont react well on no sleep
try to read between the line



To: Chris who wrote (7074)3/18/1998 12:56:00 PM
From: Robert Graham  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42787
 
The next two posts are from Briefing I think many here will find interesting. Sometime I disagree with Briefing since at times I think they focus too much on the fundamentals in their day to day coverage of the market and specific stocks. They also have underestimated the impact of a huge and continuing inflow of money back into the market. However, IMO what they have to say is always worth listening to. Oh, and do not tell anyone I have republished some of their material. ;)

Here is their comments about recent market action in the tech sector:

Updated for: March 18, 1998

Please note: Briefing.com is provided as an information service only. Charter Media, Inc. and Briefing.com do not make specific trading recommendations or provide individualized investment advice. Readers should make investment decisions based on thorough research and their own investment criteria. See Disclaimer.

General Commentary

When we turned short-term bullish on the tech sector back in early January it was because the leadership stocks were finally showing signs of life... At that time we noted that traders had about a 6-wk window of opportunity to buy techs... After which, we expected earnings warnings and renewed concern over the long-term impact of the Asian crisis to close the window for quite some time... While the earnings warnings have come, the sell-off hasn't - at least not yet... But just as the leadership stocks sent an early buying signal, they are beginning to flash warning signs... Compaq, Intel and Applied Materials have broken down technically... While Dell, Microsoft, Lucent and Cisco remain in good shape, only Lucent has exhibited strong upward momentum over past couple weeks... If the latter group begins to roll over, the bottom will finally fall out of the tech sector.

SpeedFam is due to report earnings after today's close... Street looking for a gain of $0.40... For complete earnings info, see Briefing's Earnings Calendar.

Industry Briefs

Computer Systems & Peripherals | Networking | Software | Semiconductor | Chip Equipment | Telecom Equipment

Computer Systems & Peripherals

Brief: So giving away products for free because of excess inventory isn't such a good thing after all... Shares of Compaq took it on the chin in a delayed reaction to news that company will give away its monitors to business clients in effort to work down inventory ... Stock broke through pivotal support at 25, and looks poised for a test of the 22-20 range over the intermediate-term... Rest of the PC group followed CPQ's lead... Steve Jobs lived up to expectations and introduced G3 PowerMac with a 400-megahertz, IBM processor... With a flat screen, resale to start at $1,999... Jobs noted that company has brought prices way down and that future product roll outs will be priced aggressively... Apple slipped 11/16 on a sell on the fact reaction... Iomega's rebound of 1/4 was unimpressive... Points to further downside activity over the next few days... Micron Electronics shed 5/8 after reporting weaker than expected earnings on soft revenues... After the close Jabil Circuits announced earnings of $0.52, one cent above estimates... Bad news is company noted that it expects lower operating income over the next two quarters due to slowing demand... Stock was down nearly 2 points in after hours trading.

Computer Networking

Brief: We suspected it last week and Bay Networks didn't disappoint us... After Tuesday's close, BAY warned that Q3 revenues would fall 105 shy of previous quarter due to weaker than expected demand for newest generation switching products... Earnings and margins also to be adversely impacted by pricing pressures... Street had been expecting earnings of $0.28... Look for those numbers to come down to $0.21-$0.20 area... Prior to today's announcement, SoundView cut its Q3 estimate to $0.25 from $0.30 and cut its FY98 and FY99 estimates to $1.03 and $1.40 from $1.14 and $1.65... Meanwhile CIBC Oppenheimer cut its rating to hold from buy... Stock is down 2 11/16 in after hours trading... Ascend also took a beating, falling 1 7/32... No news... Air simply being let out of the takeover balloon.

Computer Software & Services

Brief: Profit-taking weighed on the group Tuesday, with Microsoft, Yahoo!, BMC and Computer Associates pacing the retreat... Given group's dramatic gains year-to-date and the slowly deteriorating tone in techs, look for the software group to remain on the defensive over the short- to intermediate-term... Would be reducing exposure to relational database companies such as Oracle and Informix given recent gains and still clouded earnings outlook... Overall, however, we expect the software industry to continue outperforming the tech sector given greater earnings visibility and relative price stability.

Semiconductor:

Brief: Briefing has long held that tech sector is experiencing a paradigm shift away from processor speed and toward increased bandwidth - bad news for companies like Intel (at least for the next few quarters)... Merrill voiced similar concerns Tuesday when it again talked down the prospects for the chip sector... Notable exceptions were Texas Instruments (+1 1/4) and VLSI (+7/16), two companies Merrill believes are ahead of the curve in producing products for telecom market... Big losers included Altera (-1 1/8), Lattice (-1 3/16), Linear (-1 1/4) and Micron (-1 3/4)... Latter company reacting to weaker than expected earnings report... Gruntal maintained its hold rating on MU noting that it would hold off buying until DRAM prices stabilize, or until the Cubs win the World Series whichever comes first (Cub clause added by Briefing)

Semiconductor Equipment

Brief: More bad earnings news for the chip equipment sector... Brooks Automation indicated that Q2 results will fall well below street estimates... CFM Technologies announced that it will slash its workforce by 19% due to soft industry conditions... Add these developments to the bearish outlook in the chip sector and it was no surprise that the industry sold off sharply on Tuesday... Novellus, Applied Materials and KLA-Tencor led the pullback... ETEC bucked the trend and gained 13/16 on news that it was shipping its first production laser direct imaging system for the printed circuit board fabrication industry... Earnings outlook for this group remains way to clouded for our liking... As such we advise using any near-term gains to reduce exposure.

Telecommunications Equipment

Brief: Telecom equipment industry continued to exhibit impressive relative strength, with Advanced Fibre, ADC Telecom, Lucent and Tellabs posting gains of more than one point... Ciena jumped another 7/8 on news that H&Q started with a buy... Indirectly bolstered by Merrill comments... Rumors of industry consolidation also underpinning the group... As noted here yesterday, we love the group's long-term outlook but overbought short-term indicators suggest that telecom stocks are in for a brief period of backing and filling.



To: Chris who wrote (7074)3/18/1998 1:01:00 PM
From: Robert Graham  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 42787
 
Here is the other article from Briefing. Scams and the insider pool manipulation of stocks is becoming more commonplace among the BB type of stocks. I personally would never even dream of participating in a Bulletin Board stock. Why undertake that kind of risk? There are better opportunities elsewhere. In this case, it is obvious to me that if the investor did some basic research, they would of come across strong signs of a scam with this one.

Article from Briefing:

Electro-Optical: Halted by the SEC After 61 Days

Daily commentary updated for March 18, 1998

The success of the stock market over the past ten years has brought small investors to the forefront of the investing world. Unfortunately, it has also brought new creative investment scams designed to part the small investor with their money.

According to a suit filed by the Securities Exchange Commission, (the SEC) on Friday, manipulation of stock in Electro-Optical Systems is the latest securities fraud.

Who is Electro-Optical Systems, (EOSC)? Although it has been trading on the OTC Bulletin Board only since December 19, 1997, it was halted on Friday for ten days by the SEC, after plunging 50% from its early February high.

So what happened? This is really a tale of three companies: Curbstone Acquisition, WTS Transnational, and Electro-Optical Systems.

The Curbstone Acquisition Corp. Story

To understand the Electro-Optical Systems story, you first need to know about Curbstone Acquisition Corp. (CBSO). After all, the only SEC filings available are listed under this company name.

Here is a brief timeline illustrating the history of Curbstone Acquisition Corp. Bear with us, it is illustrative.

Curbstone Acquisition Corp, was founded in 1988 in Delaware, and issued 500,000 shares of its stock to the shareholders of TRIM-A-LAWN, in exchange for $1000 cash. We have been unable to determine who owned TRIM-A-LAWN, its business nature, or why Curbstone would do this, but it makes Curbstone's original share value $0.002 per share. Curbstone's stated business purpose at this time is "the subsequent search for, location of and combination of the Registrant with a privately-held business enterprise." This search will apparently take the company nearly ten years, as it makes no acquisition until Dec. 18, 1997 (see below.) In 1996, Curbstone lists its address as 3900 Paradise Road, Las Vegas, Nevada. In 1997, Curbstone lists its address as 4180 La Jolla Village Drive, Suite 500, La Jolla, California. Apparently, from founding through 1997, the company had no employees, property, or significant assets. Expenses of the company were paid by shareholders, and accounted for as additional paid-in-capital. The 10-K filed on May 9, 1997 states, "there have been no material changes in the financial condition of the Registrant since its inception, nor is a material change anticipated until the Registrant is able to identify and consummate a business combination." Some expenses, such as legal, accounting, and consulting fees, were paid by issuing stock to the providers of those services. In September 1996, the principals of Curbstone purchase 600,000 shares from the company for $12,000, or two cents a share. The money goes for expenses. By the end of 1996, there are 3,521,876 shares in the hands of 425 shareholders. Who the heck are these people, and what are they doing with a company that doesn't do anything? Except issue stock.

We can only assume that during this time, having somehow become a publicly traded stock, Curbstone Acquisition was unable to find anyone to acquire.

Until December 1997.

The WTS Transnational Story

Enter WTS Transnational Inc., a privately held company with no revenues, but apparently with plans for a product that can automatically verify fingerprints, who decides to "merge" with Curbstone.

Why would a company agree to be "acquired" by a public company with no assets, no book value, and no real market for its shares? First of all, WTS had little in the way of assets themselves.

According to the Curbstone 8-K financial statement filed December 23, 1997, WTS Transnational had no cash, accounts receivable of $10,000 and current liabilities of over $650,000 with a retained deficit (accumulated losses) of over $2 million.

WTS also listed no revenue for the previous nine months, (1/97 through 9/97). ( From the 8-K/A filed February 23, 1998, it looks like WTS did have "consulting revenue" of over 2 million in 1994 and 1995, but none in 1996 or 1997.)

In addition, WTS Transnational's employee expenses for the nine months are listed as $31,000, barely enough for one full time person. Rent for nine months was $5,000 or $555 per month.

In addition, this frightening financial information comes with an accountant's disclaimer: "Management has elected to omit substantially all of the disclosures required by generally accepted accounting principles." The accountant also claims "We are not independent with respect to WTS TRANSNATIONAL, INC."

This is a picture of a seriously struggling company with essentially no activity for the past two years.

And suddenly someone shows up wanting to "acquire" them. As part of the merger, the new entity also received $850,000 from "certain investors" (unnamed in the 8-K/A) in exchange for 2,108,481 shares of stock ($0.40 a share).

Did the WTS principals view this merger as a way to keep their fingerprint verification product dreams alive?

Curbstone, which prior to the merger had just over 3 million shares, issued more than 15 million new shares to acquire WTS Transnational. (From an accounting perspective, the transaction is structured as a recapitalization of Curbstone, which technically means WTS is the acquirer.)

The Electro-Optical Systems Story

Upon the merger, Curbstone/WTS Transnational changed its name to Electro-Optical Systems Corp., changed its symbol to EOSC, and began trading. Curbstone had previously traded at $0.25 a share. Electro-Optical began trading at $5.00.

The day of the merger, the directors and officers of Curbstone resigned. Suddenly, they were private individuals, mere shareholders in Electro-Optical.

Who was buying and selling those first trades? The SEC alleges it was individuals related to the company, who first manipulated the stock supply and price by buying amongst themselves, and then, when a "price" was established, began selling shares to new investors. It names, among others, many of the former directors and officers of Curbstone.

The merger of these two basically non-functioning companies suddenly had a market capitalization of over $100 million dollars. With over 20 million shares outstanding trading at $5.00 per share, EOSC was a "big" company.

But not one nickel of revenue.

Then, on January 31, 1998, The Future Superstock, an Internet stock touting newsletter picks EOSC as "the one stock to take a SERIOUS look at." The Future Superstock readily acknowledges that it is compensated for its "research" at the bottom of every electronic issue.

The investment opportunity is presented by the Future Superstock as follows: a new company with a fingerprint verification system that is unprecedented in capabilities and price ($500) and potential revenue of $7.5 million from its first customer alone. (That would be 15,000 units, we guess.) The company has been working for seven years and is staffed by seasoned engineers, mostly with years of experience from the Honeywell Electro-Optical division. There is no mention of Curbstone or WTS Transnational. Sounds pretty good, doesn't it?

EOSC's price takes off. Volume jumps from 82,000 the day before the newsletter to over 2 million shares on Monday, February 2. Within a few days it reaches $7.00 per share.

But then it falls dramatically. Just look at this chart. As the new investors try to sell, they find few buyers. Over 500,000 shares trade at less than $3 per share on March 12.

Currently halted since Friday by the SEC, EOSC's last trade was at $3 5/8.

Does Electro-Optical really have a product? The most recently filed 8-K/A of February 23, 1998, states: "The Company has not completed the development of its products and has suffered recurring losses of approximately $744,000 since inception." Electro-Optical's press release of March 17, 1998 states EOSC "has designed and sold a first generation system to a bona fide customer, and is in the process of developing its third generation system."

Our calls to Electro-Optical went unanswered. We sent one of our Boston office employees out to look for 20 Main Street, Acton, MA, their current headquarters. Although this address is an office building, there was no directory listing for Electro-Optical. We did however, find BBL Advertising, which is Electro-Optical's advertising agency.

The Next Chapter?

We will be watching Electro-Optical Systems closely when it resumes trading on March 26. The price of the next trade is anyone's guess. In just 61 trading days, nearly 15 million shares changed hands. How many shares now reside in the hands of small investors is unknown to anyone.

Except the SEC, who has the record of every single transaction.

Note: Briefing.com never has and does not accept compensation in exchange for analysis of a stock. Our analysis is entirely independent. No one at Briefing has any position of any kind in Electro-Optical Systems.

Note: All material information related to Curbstone Acquisition Corp., WTS Transnational, Inc., and Electro-Optical Systems Corp. was obtained from SEC filings made by Curbstone Acquisition Corp.

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